Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Nov. 7, 2016

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $40.6307 (4.4%) ($39.4751 - $40.7874) on Mon. Nov. 7, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.79% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $40.6307(4.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(83%)    PEJ(63%)    IWN(55%)    XLI(55%)    XAR(54%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -0.895% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-16%)    VIXM(-12%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-9%)    SHY(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.895% (StdDev 1.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $39.16(3.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $39.09(3.94%)
20 Day Moving Average   $38.74(4.88%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   21.7%
Market Cap   $20.663b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 2.27% (three month std-dev: 1.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 27 Average positive next day return: 0.68%(48%) Average negative next day return: -0.95%(52%) Sample size 27 Average positive next three day return: 2.05%(37%) Average negative next three day return: -1.74%(63%) Sample size 27 Average positive next weekly return: 2.05%(37%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.93%(63%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161207

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_7_2016	34.86	38.74	39.09	39.16	39.17	39.45	40.63(4.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	24	50	27	13	8.33	87%	0.35	55.1	1.79%	0	2.1	65	0
2	Nov_4_2016	34.74	38.6	38.9	38.96	38.95	38.83	38.92(0.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-5	-20	-6	0	6.72	85%	0.32	57.7	1.74%	0	0.4	62	0
3	Nov_3_2016	34.63	38.5	38.91	39	39.13	38.88	38.56(-0.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-5	-30	-10	10	6.01	85%	0.26	63.3	1.74%	0	0.1	60	0
4	Nov_2_2016	34.54	38.44	39.01	39.09	39.2	39.08	38.79(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	2	-10	-6	27	5.27	71%	0.26	74.8	1.74%	0	0.4	55	0
5	Nov_1_2016	34.45	38.36	39.1	39.01	39.17	39.38	38.88(-1.97%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	50	6	51	9.03	71%	0.23	78.8	1.89%	0	0.5	68	0

6	Oct_31_2016	34.37	38.26	39.06	38.99	38.9	39.33	39.66(1.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	29	70	17	64	5.96	75%	0.2	84.1	1.87%	0	1.4	65	0
7	Oct_28_2016	34.3	38.11	38.87	38.84	38.74	38.96	39.13(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	23	30	13	54	6.71	75%	0.2	87.9	1.9%	0	1	57	0
8	Oct_27_2016	34.23	37.95	38.74	38.81	38.75	38.48	38.99(1.5%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	10	-50	-5	54	6.54	75%	0.2	82.1	1.9%	0	0.9	63	0
9	Oct_26_2016	34.16	37.76	38.68	38.94	38.81	38.52	38.41(-0.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-3	-60	-25	62	10.11	75%	0.21	81.8	1.89%	0	0.5	57	0
10	Oct_25_2016	34.09	37.6	38.51	39.2	39.14	39.02	38.77(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	20	-30	-1	81	6.02	75%	0.26	87.3	1.9%	0	0.8	61	0

11	Oct_24_2016	34	37.43	38.37	39.13	39.22	39.09	38.91(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	26	-20	5	87	6.47	75%	0.27	82	1.91%	0	1	63	0
12	Oct_21_2016	33.91	37.19	38.28	38.89	39	39.27	38.98(-1.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	28	60	9	85	9.98	78%	0.24	74.7	1.97%	0	1.1	63	0
13	Oct_20_2016	33.83	36.98	38.07	38.64	38.73	39.34	39.65(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	43	120	27	90	14.7	78%	0.27	70.3	1.99%	0	1.7	72	0
14	Oct_19_2016	33.74	36.72	37.82	38.38	38.41	38.74	39.69(3.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	56	60	40	103	12.76	78%	0.24	63.5	1.99%	0	1.9	74	0
15	Oct_18_2016	33.66	36.43	37.54	37.74	37.93	38.13	38.44(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	29	50	12	81	10.54	76%	0.15	50.8	1.95%	0	1.4	71	0

16	Oct_17_2016	33.61	36.22	37.37	37.52	37.59	38.09	37.69(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	26	100	7	83	5.6	74%	0.21	41.3	1.94%	0	1.1	68	0
17	Oct_14_2016	33.54	36.06	37.28	37.58	37.64	37.74	37.75(-1.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	48	20	25	117	8.87	77%	0.21	34	1.94%	0	1.2	73	0
18	Oct_13_2016	33.47	35.91	37.09	37.4	37.44	37.09	38.33(4.98%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.7	22	-60	-5	104	14.77	77%	0.24	22	1.99%	0	1.8	70	0
19	Oct_12_2016	33.39	35.76	36.76	37.19	37.4	37.54	36.51(-2.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	19	40	-10	105	7.41	81%	0.15	8.9	1.9%	0	0.6	66	0
20	Oct_11_2016	33.34	35.7	36.63	37.29	37.43	37.79	37.31(-1.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	41	80	18	111	10.03	86%	0.18	2.4	2.32%	0	1.3	75	0

21	Oct_10_2016	33.28	35.65	36.42	37.18	37.12	37.26	37.99(3.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	20	10	111	6.94	86%	0.21	1.2	2.34%	0	1.9	74	0
22	Oct_7_2016	33.21	35.6	36.04	36.94	37.07	37.08	36.86(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	33	10	10	101	5.13	87%	0.18	2.4	2.33%	0	1.1	67	0
23	Oct_6_2016	33.15	35.62	35.83	36.72	36.84	36.99	37.29(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	40	14	95	5.16	87%	0.18	5	2.36%	0	1.3	70	0
24	Oct_5_2016	33.09	35.65	35.54	36.27	36.46	37.05	36.99(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	36	130	23	74	4.71	87%	0.15	5.4	2.37%	0	1	58	0
25	Oct_4_2016	33.04	35.67	35.22	35.87	36	36.7	36.76(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	36	150	31	51	9.07	87%		2.7	2.38%	0	0.8	57	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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