Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Apr. 21, 2015

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $49.4161 (3.22%) ($47.5880 - $49.4738) on Tue. Apr. 21, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.43% (three month average)
RSI   41
Latest Price   $49.4161(3.22%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL declines -0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XLI(55%)    XAR(54%)    XLF(54%)    IWM(53%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.215% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-17%)    VIXM(-16%)    UUP(-9%)    IGOV(-9%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.215% (StdDev 2.43%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $47.2(4.7%)
10 Day Moving Average   $46.69(5.84%)
20 Day Moving Average   $47.84(3.29%)
To recent high   -7.9%
To recent low   10.4%
Market Cap   $25.131b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 4.39% (three month std-dev: 2.43%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 3.41%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 4.49%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 3.32%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150521

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_21_2015	48.41	47.84	46.69	47.2	47.13	47.9	49.42(3.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	36	110	44	10	10.85	52%	0.06	-58.8	2.43%	0	0.8	41	0
2	Apr_20_2015	48.38	47.96	46.29	46.44	46.52	46.76	47.88(3.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	3	40	20	-50	9.52	54%	0.04	-56	2.41%	0	-0	31	0
3	Apr_17_2015	48.36	48.22	46.11	46.07	46.13	46.36	46.37(-0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-19	40	4	-86	8.66	52%	-0.06	-43.4	2.49%	0	-0.7	29	0
4	Apr_16_2015	48.39	48.54	46.19	45.98	46.05	46.29	46.41(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-17	40	9	-96	7.16	52%	0.08	-32.5	2.51%	0	-0.8	38	0
5	Apr_15_2015	48.35	48.82	46.38	45.9	46.03	45.91	45.94(0.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-29	-10	-2	-111	9.85	52%	0.08	-22.9	2.51%	0	-1	33	0

6	Apr_14_2015	48.31	49.11	46.83	46.09	46.13	45.81	45.63(-0.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	-50	-10	-115	9.88	52%	0.08	-10.9	2.5%	0	-1.3	27	0
7	Apr_13_2015	48.27	49.27	47.39	46.11	46.36	46.15	45.98(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-35	-20	-8	-117	9.35	52%	0.1	-7.5	2.52%	0	-1.2	27	0
8	Apr_10_2015	48.22	49.37	47.85	46.16	46.41	46.46	45.92(-0.23%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-37	20	-7	-126	11.71	49%	0.06	-5.2	2.57%	0	-1.3	24	0
9	Apr_9_2015	48.19	49.45	48.2	46.44	46.43	46.57	46.03(-1.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-40	20	-8	-135	11.58	47%	0.08	-1.6	2.59%	0	-1.4	27	0
10	Apr_8_2015	48.15	49.47	48.61	46.94	46.78	46.36	46.9(2.62%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-48	-70	-18	-136	11.18	47%	0.08	1.4	2.61%	0	-1	34	0

11	Apr_7_2015	48.11	49.41	49.1	47.72	47.36	46.29	45.7(-1.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-71	-180	-51	-132	9.39	45%	0.08	6.1	2.59%	0	-1.4	31	0
12	Apr_6_2015	48.07	49.47	49.78	48.9	48.61	47.2	46.26(-2.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-61	-220	-52	-89	13.32	45%	0.21	18.4	2.59%	0	-1.2	48	0
13	Apr_2_2015	47.97	49.5	50.52	49.78	49.87	48.43	47.31(-2.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-42	-200	-43	-40	14.11	45%	0.13	28.2	2.56%	0	-0.8	54	0
14	Apr_1_2015	47.91	49.49	51.12	50.18	50.39	50.02	48.53(-4.43%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-23	-40	-31	1	15.19	45%	0.15	31.3	2.54%	0	-0.4	60	0
15	Mar_31_2015	47.84	49.44	51.5	50.49	50.45	51.31	50.78(-1.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	120	9	54	8.39	48%	0.19	33	2.5%	0	0.5	71	0

16	Mar_30_2015	47.75	49.25	51.59	50.71	50.36	50.76	51.61(1.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	39	30	20	96	8.17	48%	0.23	30.8	2.49%	0	0.9	75	0
17	Mar_27_2015	47.64	48.99	51.3	50.85	50.49	49.59	50.67(2.72%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	4	-150	-26	95	9	48%	0.19	27.7	2.47%	0	0.6	67	0
18	Mar_26_2015	47.55	48.76	51.01	51.45	51.21	49.96	49.32(-1.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-13	-180	-54	111	14.24	46%	0.19	29.4	2.47%	0	0.2	64	0
19	Mar_25_2015	47.46	48.67	50.82	52.2	52.28	51.4	50.04(-3.56%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	11	-110	-34	146	14.24	46%	0.21	37.2	2.47%	0	0.5	65	0
20	Mar_24_2015	47.36	48.56	50.44	52.61	52.77	52.46	51.89(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	32	-30	-13	167	11.94	48%	0.25	42.8	2.44%	0	1.2	69	0

21	Mar_23_2015	47.24	48.42	49.78	52.57	52.75	53.16	52.34(-2.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	59	60	20	174	19.04	48%	0.28	50.5	2.46%	0	1.5	71	0
22	Mar_20_2015	47.11	48.24	49.16	51.76	52.32	53.08	53.65(1.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	81	130	52	168	137.77	48%	0.34	49.8	2.42%	0	2.2	79	0
23	Mar_19_2015	46.95	47.98	48.38	50.5	51	52.34	53.1(1.96%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	74	210	54	134	18.9	48%	0.32	47.5	2.44%	0	2.4	79	0
24	Mar_18_2015	46.8	47.69	47.68	49.25	49.57	51.57	52.08(0.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	85	300	79	104	21.32	48%	0.3	42.4	2.43%	0	2.5	66	0
25	Mar_17_2015	46.66	47.43	47.14	47.95	48.18	49.66	51.66(6.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	79	230	84	65	41.84	48%		29.7	2.45%	0	2.8	63	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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