Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Oct. 16, 2014

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $31.5787 (4.04%) ($28.7340 - $31.9906) on Thu. Oct. 16, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.78% (three month average)
RSI   42
Latest Price   $31.5787(4.04%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL declines -5.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XLI(54%)    XAR(53%)    XLF(53%)    IWM(52%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.39% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-10%)    UUP(-7%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.39% (StdDev 2.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 7.6%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $18.29(-42.08%)
Resistance Level   $32.43
5 Day Moving Average   $29.79(6%)
10 Day Moving Average   $31.12(1.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $32.43(-2.63%)
To recent high   -24%
To recent low   15.4%
Market Cap   $16.06b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 6.57% (three month std-dev: 2.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 1.97%(67%) Average negative next day return: -6.15%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 3.41%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -3.72%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 4.62%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.07%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141116

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_16_2014	37.59	32.43	31.12	29.79	29.48	30.05	31.58(4.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-17	100	16	-116	24.99	43%	-0.19	-70.9	2.78%	0	-0.4	42	INF
2	Oct_15_2014	37.66	32.66	31.19	29.6	29.32	29.49	30.35(0.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-35	10	0	-141	39.94	41%	-0.19	-71.2	2.72%	0	-1	41	INF
3	Oct_14_2014	37.73	32.93	31.45	29.85	29.74	28.9	30.18(10.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-57	-210	-25	-153	28.15	41%	-0.21	-69.8	2.73%	0	-1.2	38	INF
4	Oct_13_2014	37.81	33.24	31.82	30.35	30.49	29.15	27.37(-7.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-101	-290	-76	-175	34.53	34%	-0.26	-66.8	2.39%	0	-2.7	30	INF
5	Oct_10_2014	37.91	33.67	32.48	31.57	31.61	30.59	29.48(-3.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-87	-220	-71	-135	31.02	37%	-0.18	-68.1	2.24%	0	-2.4	34	INF

6	Oct_9_2014	37.98	34.02	32.99	32.61	32.7	31.82	30.63(-3.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-48	-180	-37	-82	22.64	42%	-0.18	-61.2	2.23%	0	-2.2	33	INF
7	Oct_8_2014	38.05	34.32	33.32	32.98	33.34	32.64	31.61(-3.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-43	-110	-30	-82	22.75	43%	-0.13	-60.9	2.27%	0	-1.9	32	INF
8	Oct_7_2014	38.1	34.59	33.63	33.25	33.34	33.59	32.65(-2.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-33	40	-18	-76	10.03	43%	-0.1	-62.6	2.24%	0	-1.4	38	INF
9	Oct_6_2014	38.14	34.77	33.76	33.52	33.5	34.05	33.46(-3.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-6	110	15	-69	12.79	44%	-0.08	-66.8	2.27%	0	-1	38	INF
10	Oct_3_2014	38.17	34.93	33.82	33.53	33.39	33.42	34.7(6.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-11	-10	12	-81	15.08	46%	-0.05	-70.4	2.25%	0	-0.2	46	INF

11	Oct_2_2014	38.19	35	33.83	33.48	33.34	32.95	32.5(-1.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-44	-90	-21	-114	21.48	39%	-0.13	-73.5	2.07%	0	-1.8	33	INF
12	Oct_1_2014	38.24	35.23	34.22	33.72	33.64	33.36	32.94(-3.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-41	-70	-21	-101	19.45	40%	-0.13	-73.9	2.13%	0	-1.7	33	INF
13	Sep_30_2014	38.29	35.46	34.51	34.05	33.88	33.74	33.98(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-27	-40	-6	-90	10.66	41%	-0.08	-64.5	2.12%	0	-1.1	34	INF
14	Sep_29_2014	38.32	35.69	34.74	34.02	34.03	33.93	33.55(-2.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-27	-20	-5	-92	7.49	41%	-0.08	-63.5	2.13%	0	-1.6	36	INF
15	Sep_26_2014	38.35	35.88	34.95	34.13	34.01	34.03	34.41(2.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-31	-10	-8	-98	8.52	42%	-0.08	-68.3	2.11%	0	-1.1	38	INF

16	Sep_25_2014	38.38	36.03	35.11	34.26	34.17	34.13	33.72(-2.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-39	-20	-18	-100	10.93	42%	-0.03	-68.2	2.1%	0	-1.8	37	INF
17	Sep_24_2014	38.39	36.22	35.39	34.81	34.63	33.99	34.6(2.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-35	-140	-20	-81	8.49	42%	-0.03	-67.2	2.1%	0	-1.4	37	INF
18	Sep_23_2014	38.4	36.37	35.62	35.07	35.13	34.22	33.84(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-57	-180	-47	-86	12.15	40%	-0.03	-69.3	2.09%	0	-2.2	29	INF
19	Sep_22_2014	38.41	36.57	35.89	35.57	35.72	35.27	34.08(-2.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-41	-80	-30	-75	10.97	40%	-0.03	-71.4	2.09%	0	-2.5	25	INF
20	Sep_19_2014	38.42	36.78	36.15	35.86	36.01	36.04	35.08(-3.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-21	20	-8	-58	17.59	45%	0.03	-70.7	2.12%	0	-1.9	40	INF

21	Sep_18_2014	38.41	36.93	36.28	36.05	35.99	36.17	36.44(1.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-11	30	4	-56	4.56	47%	0.08	-71.7	2.08%	0	-0.6	44	INF
22	Sep_17_2014	38.38	37.04	36.32	36.06	36.02	35.97	35.88(-1.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-20	-10	-5	-64	6.68	47%	0.05	-53.5	2.08%	0	-1.3	42	INF
23	Sep_16_2014	38.36	37.18	36.47	36.28	36.2	35.81	36.38(2.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-21	-80	-9	-57	6.72	47%	0.05	-33.2	2.09%	0	-0.9	44	INF
24	Sep_15_2014	38.34	37.31	36.69	36.27	36.41	36.06	35.51(-1.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-30	-60	-21	-56	7.95	45%	0.05	-20	2.08%	0	-1.9	36	INF
25	Sep_12_2014	38.32	37.42	36.88	36.49	36.55	36.6	36.06(-1.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-17	10	-6	-48	8.23	42%		-5.5	2.07%	0	-1.5	36	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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