Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Aug. 19, 2014

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $38.7239 (-0.57%) ($38.5611 - $39.2699) on Tue. Aug. 19, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.15% (three month average)
RSI   53
Latest Price   $38.7239(-0.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XAR(54%)    XLI(54%)    XLF(53%)    IWM(52%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.075% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-10%)    UUP(-7%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.075% (StdDev 2.15%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $37.92(2.12%)
10 Day Moving Average   $36.94(4.83%)
20 Day Moving Average   $37.52(3.21%)
To recent high   -9%
To recent low   9.7%
Market Cap   $19.693b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 4.56% (three month std-dev: 2.15%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 1.1%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.92%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 1.51%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -6.02%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.38%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140919

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_19_2014	37.82	37.52	36.94	37.92	38.17	38.72	38.72(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	42	120	36	59	5.82	48%	0.11	-35.1	2.15%	0	0.7	53	0
2	Aug_18_2014	37.78	37.59	36.62	37.37	37.51	38.17	38.94(3.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	31	130	34	20	10.9	48%	0.16	-44.8	2.14%	0	0.7	54	0
3	Aug_15_2014	37.72	37.65	36.62	36.85	36.93	37.62	37.54(-0.96%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	22	140	34	-16	9.81	45%	0.08	-51	2.1%	0	-0.1	43	0
4	Aug_14_2014	37.69	37.81	36.35	36.47	36.54	36.85	37.9(3.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	16	70	37	-46	10.13	45%	0.08	-55.8	2.1%	0	0	38	0
5	Aug_13_2014	37.66	37.89	36.25	35.95	35.95	36.24	36.51(1.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-22	60	6	-104	6.18	42%	0	-61.2	2.06%	0	-0.7	27	0

6	Aug_12_2014	37.66	38.13	36.36	35.82	35.82	36.22	35.94(-1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-19	80	18	-131	6.22	44%	0.03	-57.7	2.05%	0	-1	20	0
7	Aug_11_2014	37.65	38.42	36.54	35.75	35.65	35.66	36.37(2.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-35	-10	6	-157	9.02	44%	0.05	-53.2	2.07%	0	-0.9	29	0
8	Aug_8_2014	37.63	38.65	36.73	35.79	35.57	35.42	35.61(0.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-64	-50	-24	-184	20.76	45%	0.03	-48.2	2.06%	0	-1.4	23	0
9	Aug_7_2014	37.62	38.93	37.14	36.22	36.1	35.63	35.3(-1.6%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-57	-100	-18	-173	9.89	45%	-0.03	-42.8	2.08%	0	-1.7	19	0
10	Aug_6_2014	37.63	39.22	37.63	36.6	36.5	35.73	35.88(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-68	-160	-36	-164	9.5	45%	0.03	-40.2	2.08%	0	-1.7	31	0

11	Aug_5_2014	37.62	39.45	38.16	36.98	36.92	36.56	35.61(-2.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-64	-70	-35	-151	10.42	45%	-0.03	-42.6	2.08%	0	-2.2	25	0
12	Aug_4_2014	37.63	39.62	38.66	37.41	37.42	37.26	36.53(-3.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-46	-30	-15	-137	11.09	47%	0.05	-48.2	2.05%	0	-2	26	0
13	Aug_1_2014	37.61	39.73	39.08	37.8	37.71	37.28	37.77(1.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-51	-90	-24	-133	8.98	52%	0	-56.9	2.01%	0	-1.4	35	0
14	Jul_31_2014	37.61	39.85	39.4	38.21	38.15	37.57	37.21(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-62	-110	-41	-124	13.54	52%	0	-61.3	2.02%	0	-1.9	32	0
15	Jul_30_2014	37.61	40	39.69	38.83	38.89	38.15	37.79(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-58	-130	-42	-107	10.76	52%	0	-62.7	2.06%	0	-1.8	34	0

16	Jul_29_2014	37.61	40.21	40.07	39.55	39.56	38.73	37.77(-1.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-52	-150	-45	-72	10.72	52%	0	-46.4	2.07%	0	-2.1	41	0
17	Jul_28_2014	37.61	40.39	40.48	40.1	40.28	39.63	38.49(-3.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-32	-100	-34	-26	15.94	52%	0.03	-44.7	2.05%	0	-1.8	54	0
18	Jul_25_2014	37.6	40.57	40.75	40.51	40.65	40.4	39.82(-1.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-12	-30	-21	14	10.99	52%	0.08	-37.7	2.03%	0	-0.8	62	0
19	Jul_24_2014	37.57	40.7	40.88	40.75	40.81	40.92	40.28(-2.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	12	20	2	41	18.02	52%	0.08	-23.2	2.07%	0	-0.4	54	0
20	Jul_23_2014	37.54	40.78	40.95	40.66	40.82	40.9	41.4(2.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	17	30	7	46	10.17	56%	0.11	-20.6	2.04%	0	0.6	57	0

21	Jul_22_2014	37.5	40.76	40.82	40.69	40.67	40.69	40.49(-0.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-1	0	-11	30	6.46	55%	0.08	-15	2.04%	0	-0.2	43	0
22	Jul_21_2014	37.47	40.85	40.65	40.94	40.95	40.74	40.58(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	5	-40	-3	27	5.68	55%	0.11	3.9	2.05%	0	-0.2	48	0
23	Jul_18_2014	37.43	40.94	40.44	41.04	41.12	40.65	41(2.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-10	-70	-14	3	8.87	55%	0.11	21.2	2.04%	0	0.1	45	0
24	Jul_17_2014	37.39	40.95	40.32	41.03	41.24	41.15	39.84(-4.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-18	0	-18	-18	13.92	52%	0.08	31.4	2.03%	0	-0.9	38	0
25	Jul_16_2014	37.36	41	40.35	41.25	41.35	41.6	41.54(-0.5%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	14	50	21	-6	6.37	60%		39.3	1.95%	0	0.5	47	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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