Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ XLP: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Sep. 3, 2010

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jan. 15, 2021)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $27.2900 (0.63%) ($27.1100 - $27.2900) on Fri. Sep. 3, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   N/A
Trend Narrative   Rebound
Average Daily Price Swing   $0.25 (0.93% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.2% (StdDev 0.93%)
Daily Moving Force   0.1%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   -0%
Latest Price   $27.2900(0.63%)
Forecasted Low Price   27.24(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price   27.43(0.5%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.3%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   2.4%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLP advances 0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (81% probability)
SPY(81%)    XLU(73%)    XLY(73%)    XLK(71%)    QQQ(69%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will advance at least -0% in a week (20% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    TIP(-14%)    VXX(-9%)    XLC(-7%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the rebound

Valuation to SPY 0.8

Relative Volatility 0.2 (options are faily valued)

Market Trend Strength   0.2% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

Next Hour Price   $27.29(0%)
Support Level   $26.84
5 Day Moving Average   $26.86(1.6%)
10 Day Moving Average   $26.78(1.9%)
20 Day Moving Average   $26.84(1.68%)
To recent high   -0.4%
To recent low   7.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. XLP price fluctuates within 0.93% (three month std-dev: 0.93% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. XLP price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20101003

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Sep_3_2010	26.84 (-0.2%)	26.78 (0.1%)	26.86 (0.5%)		(0%)	27.29(0.63%)	27.11-27.29	1.6(1.8)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0%	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	60	1	0	0	Rebound	27.08(-0.77%)	27.3-26.98	5.84	-0.4%-7.2%
2	Sep_2_2010	26.83 (-0.4%)	26.72 (-0.3%)	26.74 (0.5%)		(0%)	27.12(0.63%)	26.94-27.12	1.1(1.3)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	56	0.9	0	0	Rebound	26.99(-0.49%)	27.11-26.93	6.04	-1%-6.6%
3	Sep_1_2010	26.82 (-0.5%)	26.72 (-0.6%)	26.62 (0.2%)		(0%)	26.95(1.77%)	26.71-27	0.6(0.6)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.1%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	53	0.9	0	0	After Bottom	26.87(-0.29%)	26.86-26.88	9.66	-1.6%-5.9%
4	Aug_31_2010	26.83 (-0.6%)	26.67 (-0.6%)	26.57 (-0.2%)		(0%)	26.48(0.08%)	26.37-26.64	-1.3(-1.5)	0	%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	0	39	0.9	0	0	After Bottom	26.54(0.21%)	26.39-26.65	12.42	-3.3%-4%
5	Aug_30_2010	26.86 (-0.6%)	26.73 (-0.6%)	26.61 (-0.3%)		(0%)	26.46(-0.86%)	26.46-26.77	-1.6(-1.7)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.2%)	0	28	1	0	0	Downtrend	26.44(-0.07%)	26.4-26.54	8.01	-3.4%-4%

6	Aug_27_2010	26.9 (-0.6%)	26.76 (-0.7%)	26.61 (0%)		(0%)	26.69(0.64%)	26.35-26.72	-1(-1)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.12%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	34	0.9	0	0	After Bottom	26.72(0.13%)	26.61-26.82	9.87	-2.6%-4.9%
7	Aug_26_2010	26.92 (-0.6%)	26.77 (-0.9%)	26.68 (-0.2%)		(0%)	26.52(-0.75%)	26.46-26.82	-1.8(-1.9)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.3%)	0	35	0.8	0	0	Downtrend	26.51(-0.05%)	26.47-26.59	7.55	-3.2%-4.2%
8	Aug_25_2010	26.94 (-0.6%)	26.81 (-0.9%)	26.73 (-0.2%)		(0%)	26.72(0.23%)	26.49-26.8	-1(-1.1)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	0	41	0.8	0	0	Downtrend	26.7(-0.09%)	26.67-26.76	6.55	-2.4%-5%
9	Aug_24_2010	26.97 (-0.3%)	26.82 (-0.8%)	26.79 (-0.3%)		(0%)	26.66(-0.49%)	26.5-26.8	-1.2(-1.5)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	0	36	0.8	0	0	Growing Downtrend	26.64(-0.08%)	26.61-26.71	8.43	-2.7%-4.8%
10	Aug_23_2010	27 (-0.2%)	26.88 (-0.6%)	26.87 (0%)		(0%)	26.79(0.22%)	26.77-26.94	-0.9(-1)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	0	43	0.8	0	0	After Bottom	26.83(0.15%)	26.74-26.9	4.15	-2.2%-5.3%

11	Aug_20_2010	27.03 (0%)	26.92 (-0.6%)	26.86 (-0.1%)		(0%)	26.73(0%)	26.64-26.77	-1.4(-1.5)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	0	35	0.8	0	0	Downtrend	26.72(-0.02%)	26.7-26.78	5.86	-2.4%-5%
12	Aug_19_2010	27.05 (0.2%)	26.96 (-0.6%)	26.88 (-0%)		(0%)	26.73(-1.18%)	26.62-26.97	-1.5(-1.7)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(0.5%)	0	46	0.7	0	0	Correction	26.62(-0.41%)	26.6-26.71	7.94	-2.4%-5%
13	Aug_18_2010	27.06 (0.2%)	26.99 (-0.5%)	26.89 (0.2%)		(0%)	27.05(0.07%)	26.89-27.14	-0(-0)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.04%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	54	0.7	0	0	Downtrend	27.04(-0.03%)	27.04-27.05	5.38	-1.3%-6.3%
14	Aug_17_2010	27.04 (0.1%)	26.99 (-0.6%)	26.85 (-0.2%)		(0%)	27.03(0.97%)	26.83-27.17	-0(-0)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	45	0.8	0	0	After Bottom	27.01(-0.08%)	26.98-27.03	5.25	-1.9%-6.2%
15	Aug_16_2010	27.04 (0.1%)	27 (-0.6%)	26.9 (-0.3%)		(0%)	26.77(-0.11%)	26.53-26.82	-1(-1.1)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	0	36	0.8	0	0	Correction	26.62(-0.57%)	26.59-26.74	5.08	-2.9%-5.2%

16	Aug_13_2010	27.03 (0.2%)	27.05 (-0.3%)	26.99 (-0.2%)		(0%)	26.8(-0.04%)	26.68-26.87	-0.9(-0.9)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.04%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	39	0.9	0	0	Correction	26.68(-0.45%)	26.65-26.79	4.44	-2.8%-5.3%
17	Aug_12_2010	27.03 (0.3%)	27.07 (-0.3%)	27.05 (-0.2%)		(0%)	26.81(-0.11%)	26.54-26.85	-0.9(-0.9)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.02%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	44	0.9	0	0	Correction	26.69(-0.44%)	26.67-26.8	6.41	-3.2%-5.3%
18	Aug_11_2010	27.03 (0.5%)	27.09 (-0.2%)	27.1 (-0.2%)		(0%)	26.84(-1.65%)	26.8-27.01	-0.6(-0.7)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0%	N/A	Higher(0.7%)	0	51	0.9	0	0	Correction	26.74(-0.36%)	26.72-26.84	9.34	-3.1%-5.5%
19	Aug_10_2010	27.02 (0.7%)	27.09 (0.2%)	27.16 (0.2%)		(0%)	27.29(0.22%)	27.05-27.43	1.1(1.1)	0	%	0%	0%	0.06%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	66	0.9	0	0	Uptrend	27.3(0.03%)	27.24-27.33	7.5	-1.5%-7.2%
20	Aug_9_2010	27 (0.8%)	27.13 (0.2%)	27.11 (-0%)		(0%)	27.23(0.52%)	27.12-27.31	0.9(0.9)	0	%	0%	0%	0.08%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	57	0.9	0	0	Uptrend Consolidation	27.17(-0.22%)	27.14-27.26	3.65	-1.7%-7%

21	Aug_6_2010	26.97 (1%)	27.13 (0.5%)	27.12 (0.1%)		(0%)	27.09(0.22%)	26.8-27.1	0.4(0.4)	0	%	0%	0%	0.12%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0%)	0	61	0.9	0	0	Uptrend	27.13(0.15%)	27.07-27.16	8.37	-2.2%-6.4%
22	Aug_5_2010	26.94 (1.1%)	27.13 (0.7%)	27.1 (0.1%)		(0%)	27.03(-0.44%)	26.96-27.08	0.2(0.3)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.16%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	61	0.9	0	0	Uptrend	27.08(0.2%)	27.02-27.11	18.51	-2.4%-6.2%
23	Aug_4_2010	26.91 (1%)	27.14 (0.5%)	27.08 (-0%)		(0%)	27.15(0.37%)	27.03-27.22	0.6(0.7)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.16%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.2%)	0	54	1.1	0	0	Uptrend	27.21(0.21%)	27.11-27.25	4.46	-2%-6.7%
24	Aug_3_2010	26.86 (0.9%)	27.09 (0.4%)	27.09 (-0.3%)		(0%)	27.05(-0.88%)	26.99-27.16	0.4(0.5)	0	-0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.18%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.4%)	0	54	1.4	0	0	Uptrend	27.13(0.29%)	27.02-27.18	7.1	-2.7%-6.3%
25	Aug_2_2010	26.8 (0.9%)	27.07 (0.5%)	27.16 (0%)		(0%)	27.29(1.15%)	27.13-27.29	1(1.2)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.2%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.3%)	0	58	1.4	0	0	Uptrend	27.37(0.29%)	27.2-27.44	7.79	-1.8%-7.2%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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