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     Fri. Apr. 1, 2011



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Dec. 1, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $133.1500 (0.42%) ($132.8300 - $133.7700) on Fri. Apr. 1, 2011.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  N/A
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0.9% a week (94% probability)
  XLK(93%)    XLY(93%)    QQQ(92%)    IWM(90%)    VGK(85%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least 0.5% in a week (31% probabilities).
  TLT(-47%)    TIP(-19%)    SHY(-16%)    IDRV(-5%)    ACES(-5%)  
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   0.8 (options are expensive)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  70%
Bullish Price Move  0.8%
Bearish Probability  30%
Bearish Price Move  -0.8%
Recommended Position Size  50%
Latest Price  $133.1500
Next Hour Price  $133.15(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $133.31(0.12%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $131.59 - $134.71
Support Level  $130.52
5 Day Moving Average  $132.27(0.67%)
10 Day Moving Average  $131.3(1.41%)
20 Day Moving Average  $130.52(2.02%)
To recent high  -1%
To recent low  5.5%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  86%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
 


  
 
Risk Appetite  Risk On (2)
Fed Balance Sheet  2.623 T (Wed. Mar. 30, 2011) Expansion
Fed Fund Rate  0.11% (Fri. Apr. 1, 2011) Move Up
Yield Curve  Improving (15)
Credit Spread  Worsening (-4)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.42% (three month std-dev: 0.81%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20110501

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Apr_1_2011-1%-5.5% 0.1%,0.1(0)1.6%,1.2(0.2)0.3%,0.200%0.6%1.4001.7NAN%0154.04   133.15(0.42%)132.83-133.77N/A 133.31(0.12%)131.59-134.7160
2Mar_31_2011-1.4%-5.4% 0%,0(-0)1.3%,0.9(0.2)0.3%,0.200%0.2%1.1001.8NAN%0132.76   132.59(-0.14%)132.45-132.96N/A 132.79(0.15%)131.44-133.8854
3Mar_30_2011-1.3%-5.6% 0%,0(0.1)1%,0.7(0.5)0.5%,0.300%-0.1%1.3001.7NAN%0135.9   132.77(0.69%)132.36-133.16N/A 132.76(-0.01%)131.37-133.8958
4Mar_29_2011-2%-4.9% -0.1%,-0.1(0.1)0.4%,0.3(0.4)0.4%,0.300%-0.6%0.8001.7NAN%0129.84   131.86(0.67%)130.44-131.9Uptrend Reversal 132.43(0.43%)131.95-132.7546
5Mar_28_2011-2.6%-4.2% -0.3%,-0.2(0.1)-0.2%,-0.1(0.2)0.2%,0.100%-0.8%0.4001.7NAN%0109.84   130.98(-0.24%)130.94-131.92Rebound 130.56(-0.32%)130.89-130.4343
 
6Mar_25_2011-2.4%-4.5% -0.4%,-0.2(0.2)-0.4%,-0.3(0.3)0.6%,0.400%-0.9%0.5001.8NAN%0155.77   131.3(0.31%)130.89-131.87Downtrend Consolidation 131.13(-0.13%)131.02-131.1748
7Mar_24_2011-2.7%-4.2% -0.6%,-0.4(0.2)-0.8%,-0.5(0.4)0.5%,0.300%-1%0.2001.8NAN%0159.24   130.9(0.96%)129.67-131.09Downtrend Consolidation 130.6(-0.23%)130.81-130.5244
8Mar_23_2011-3.6%-3.2% -0.8%,-0.6(0.2)-1.3%,-0.9(0.2)0.6%,0.400%-1.1%-0.4001.8NAN%0148.65   129.66(0.29%)128.32-130Downtrend 129.06(-0.46%)128.73-129.8537
9Mar_22_2011-3.9%-2.9% -1%,-0.7(0.1)-1.5%,-1.1(-0)0.1%,0.100%-1%-0.7001.8NAN%0129.74   129.29(-0.35%)129.17-129.89Downtrend 128.53(-0.59%)128.09-129.5745
10Mar_21_2011-3.6%-3.5% -1.1%,-0.8(-0)-1.5%,-1(0.1)-0.1%,-000%-0.9%-0.5001.8NAN%0154.07   129.74(1.55%)129.2-130.01Downtrend 128.87(-0.67%)128.42-129.9347
 
11Mar_18_2011-5%-2.5% -1.1%,-0.7(-0.1)-1.6%,-1(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.300%-0.9%-1.5002NAN%0230.65   127.76(-0.07%)127.51-128.88Bottom 128.1(0.27%)126.96-128.8635
12Mar_17_2011-5%-2.9% -0.9%,-0.6(-0.1)-1.4%,-0.9(-0.2)-0.3%,-0.200%-0.8%-1.7002NAN%0254.52   127.85(1.32%)127.1-128.39Bottom 128.36(0.4%)127.21-129.1439
13Mar_16_2011-6.2%-1.5% -0.8%,-0.5(-0.2)-1.1%,-0.7(-0.3)-1%,-0.600%-0.6%-2.7001.9NAN%0469.16   126.18(-1.85%)125.28-128.57Growing Downtrend 125.7(-0.38%)125.06-127.1140
14Mar_15_2011-4.4%-3.6% -0.5%,-0.4(-0.2)-0.6%,-0.5(-0.2)-0.6%,-0.500%-0.5%-2.2001.6NAN%0359.79   128.56(-1.15%)126.5-129.33Growing Downtrend 128.33(-0.18%)127.97-129.1944
15Mar_14_2011-3.3%-4.8% -0.3%,-0.3(-0.1)-0.3%,-0.3(-0)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.5%-1.6001.4NAN%0235.61   130.05(-0.6%)129.06-130.48Downtrend 130(-0.04%)129.79-130.4845
 
16Mar_11_2011-2.7%-5.4% -0.2%,-0.2(-0.1)-0.3%,-0.3(0)-0.2%,-0.300%-0.4%-1.2001.3NAN%0225.76   130.84(0.69%)129.49-131.31Downtrend 130.79(-0.04%)130.65-131.1239
17Mar_10_2011-3.4%-4.7% -0%,-0(-0.2)-0.3%,-0.3(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.600%-0.3%-2001.3NAN%0301.67   129.94(-1.85%)129.81-131.18Downtrend 129.91(-0.02%)129.7-130.3837
18Mar_9_2011-1.6%-7% 0.2%,0.2(-0)-0.2%,-0.2(0.3)0.2%,0.200%-0.3%-0.1001.2NAN%0153.9   132.39(-0.14%)131.6-132.8N/A 132.43(0.03%)132.39-132.4744
19Mar_8_2011-1.4%-7.5% 0.2%,0.3(-0.1)-0.4%,-0.5(0.3)0.3%,0.300%-0.4%0.1001.2NAN%0174.71   132.58(0.87%)131.07-133N/A 132.54(-0.03%)132.5-132.5848
20Mar_7_2011-2.3%-7% 0.2%,0.3(-0.2)-0.7%,-0.9(-0.3)-0.3%,-0.300%-0.5%-1001.2NAN%0216.89   131.43(-0.79%)130.74-133.16Correction 130.54(-0.68%)130.38-131.1743
 
21Mar_4_2011-1.5%-7.9% 0.4%,0.5(-0)-0.5%,-0.5(-0.1)0%,000%-0.2%-0001.3NAN%0277.37   132.47(-0.75%)131.6-133.63Correction 131.94(-0.4%)131.82-132.4248
22Mar_3_2011-0.8%-8.7% 0.5%,0.5(0.1)-0.4%,-0.4(0.1)0.4%,0.500%-0.1%0.9001.3NAN%0176.49   133.47(1.72%)132.39-133.62N/A 133.24(-0.17%)132.87-133.5654
23Mar_2_2011-2.5%-7.1% 0.4%,0.4(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.5(0)0%,000%0.1%-0.9001.5NAN%0200.28   131.21(0.21%)130.35-131.82Downtrend 131.18(-0.02%)131.09-131.4247
24Mar_1_2011-2.7%-8.2% 0.4%,0.5(-0)-0.5%,-0.5(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.200%0.2%-1.1001.5NAN%0258.58   130.93(-1.67%)130.89-133.69Correction 130.24(-0.53%)130.09-130.8144
25Feb_28_2011-1%-12.4% 0.5%,0.4(-0)-0.3%,-0.3(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.200%0.5%0.7001.7NAN%0141.6   133.15(0.62%)132.38-133.32Correction 132.64(-0.38%)132.29-133.0857
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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