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     Mon. Oct. 18, 2010

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. May. 28, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $118.5400 (0.71%) ($117.3100 - $118.6700) on Mon. Oct. 18, 2010.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Average Daily Percentage Swing  1% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $118.5400(0.71%)
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Top Holdings  Top Holding List
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
  QQQ(92%)    XLK(89%)    IWM(88%)    XLY(87%)    EWG(80%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will decline at least -0.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
  TLT(-33%)    SHY(-8%)    TIP(-7%)    IGOV(2%)    GLD(4%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
 
 
Relative Volatility   (options are extremely cheap)
 
Market Trend Strength  -0.5% (StdDev 1%)
Hourly BBV   0 ()
Intraday Trend   0.7%
  
 

  


5 Day Moving Average  $117.73(0.69%)
10 Day Moving Average  $117.03(1.29%)
20 Day Moving Average  $115.62(2.53%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  12.6%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Average Volume   million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  1.8
One Month Target Price  > $118.54
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $112.61
 
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  37.8000 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate  % ()
Yield Curve   (0)
Credit Spread   (0)
 

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -2.6% away from the target price of 118.54.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.41% (three month std-dev: 1%) daily (68% of days).

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