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     Fri. Jul. 6, 2007



Trading Signals: XLY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Nov. 27, 2020)

(Consumer Discretionary sector ETF)

XLY latest price $40.1700 (0.9%) ($39.0200 - $40.7000) on Fri. Jul. 6, 2007.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Rebound
Implied Volatility  n/a (,,)
Call Money Flow  Bearish (,,)
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  XLY advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support XLY advance at 0.1% a week (91% probability)
  SPY(91%)    IWM(88%)    QQQ(87%)    PEJ(85%)    XLK(85%)  
Factors Impacting XLY price  XLY will decline at least -0.2% in a week (29% probabilities).
  TLT(-41%)    SHY(-29%)    TIP(-19%)    ACES(-11%)    XLF(-5%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Buy the rebound
 
Valuation to SPY   -1.3
 
Relative Volatility   -2.3 (options are extremely cheap)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


XLY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  88%
Bullish Price Move  0.7%
Bearish Probability  13%
Bearish Price Move  -0.7%
Recommended Position Size  107%
Latest Price  $40.1700
Next Hour Price  $40.17(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $39.8(-0.91%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $40.18 - $39.64
Support Level  $39.51
5 Day Moving Average  $39.69(1.21%)
10 Day Moving Average  $39.48(1.75%)
20 Day Moving Average  $39.51(1.67%)
To recent high  -0.6%
To recent low  4.1%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
 


  
 
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. XLY price fluctuates within 0.73% (three month std-dev: 0.67%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. XLY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20070806

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Jul_6_2007-0.6%-4.1% -0.1%,-0.1(0.4)0%,0(0.4)0.5%,0.600%-0.1%2.3001.1NAN%02.15   40.17(0.9%)39.02-40.7Rebound 39.8(-0.91%)40.18-39.6454
2Jul_5_2007-1.5%-3.1% -0.4%,-0.5(0.1)-0.2%,-0.3(0.1)0.2%,0.300%-0.1%1.3001.1NAN%03.35   39.81(0.53%)39.4-39.88Downtrend 39.76(-0.13%)39.77-39.7451
3Jul_3_2007-2%-2.8% -0.5%,-0.6(0.1)-0.3%,-0.4(0)0.3%,0.400%-0.1%0.5001.2NAN%01.82   39.6(0.15%)39.45-39.69Downtrend 39.56(-0.1%)39.55-39.5754
4Jul_2_2007-2.2%-3.6% -0.5%,-0.5(-0)-0.3%,-0.3(0)0.2%,0.200%-0.1%0.2001.3NAN%01.24   39.54(0.53%)39.01-39.81Downtrend 39.49(-0.13%)39.47-39.5362
5Jun_29_2007-2.7%-3.7% -0.5%,-0.4(-0.1)-0.3%,-0.3(-0.1)-0%,-000%-0.2%-0.4001.5NAN%01.95   39.33(0.13%)39.1-39.67Growing Downtrend 39.29(-0.11%)39.25-39.3652
 
6Jun_28_2007-2.8%-3.9% -0.4%,-0.3(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.2(-0.3)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.2%-0.6001.6NAN%03.16   39.28(-0.2%)39.28-39.6Growing Downtrend 39.24(-0.1%)39.2-39.3348
7Jun_27_2007-2.6%-4.1% -0.3%,-0.3(-0.1)0.1%,0.1(-0)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.2%-0.5001.5NAN%01.87   39.36(1.03%)38.79-39.43N/A 39.42(0.14%)39.33-39.4958
8Jun_26_2007-3.6%-3.1% -0.2%,-0.2(-0.1)0.1%,0.1(0)-0.4%,-0.400%-0.3%-1.6001.6NAN%09.75   38.96(-0.69%)38.96-39.39Oversold 39.15(0.5%)38.95-39.2142
9Jun_25_2007-2.9%-3.8% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.1)0.1%,0.1(0.1)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.3%-1.1001.5NAN%01.82   39.23(-0.41%)39.08-39.58Rebound 39.47(0.62%)39.21-39.5938
10Jun_22_2007-2.5%-4.2% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.1(0.1)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.3%-0.7001.4NAN%02.29   39.39(-0.66%)39.24-39.57Range Bound 39.42(0.08%)39.49-39.3737
 
11Jun_21_2007-1.9%-4.9% 0%,0(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.1(0.3)-0%,-000%-0.3%-0.1001.4NAN%02.92   39.65(-0.18%)39.25-39.76Range Bound 39.65(-0%)39.67-39.6340
12Jun_20_2007-1.7%-5.1% 0.1%,0.1(-0)-0.4%,-0.4(0.2)0.2%,0.200%-0.5%0.1001.4NAN%02.66   39.72(-0.18%)39.63-40.13Downtrend 39.69(-0.07%)39.68-39.7145
13Jun_19_2007-1.5%-5.3% 0.1%,0.1(0.1)-0.6%,-0.6(0.1)0.4%,0.400%-0.6%0.2001.4NAN%03.11   39.79(0.33%)39.46-39.81Downtrend 39.76(-0.07%)39.75-39.7847
14Jun_18_2007-1.9%-4.9% 0.1%,0.1(0)-0.7%,-0.7(-0.1)0.2%,0.200%-0.5%-0.1001.3NAN%00.79   39.66(-0.43%)39.64-39.86Correction 39.37(-0.73%)39.32-39.5851
15Jun_15_2007-1.4%-6.7% 0.1%,0.1(0)-0.6%,-0.7(-0.1)0.2%,0.200%-0.4%0.3001.3NAN%02.64   39.83(0.33%)39.76-40Correction 39.75(-0.19%)39.75-39.7552
 
16Jun_14_2007-1.8%-6.4% 0%,0(0.1)-0.6%,-0.6(0.2)0.4%,0.400%-0.2%0001.4NAN%00.95   39.7(0.71%)39.37-39.72Downtrend 39.66(-0.1%)39.64-39.7153
17Jun_13_2007-2.4%-5.6% -0.1%,-0.1(-0)-0.8%,-0.8(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.100%-0.1%-0.6001.4NAN%01.39   39.42(1.15%)38.98-39.42Downtrend 39.35(-0.17%)39.3-39.4745
18Jun_12_2007-3.6%-4.4% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.1)-0.7%,-0.7(-0.3)-0.6%,-0.600%0.1%-1.7001.4NAN%01.63   38.97(-0.81%)38.87-39.33Downtrend 38.92(-0.12%)38.85-39.140
19Jun_11_2007-2.8%-5.3% 0%,0(-0.1)-0.4%,-0.4(-0.3)-0.6%,-0.600%0.3%-1001.3NAN%01.25   39.29(-0.33%)39.16-39.43Correction 39(-0.75%)38.94-39.2142
20Jun_8_2007-2.4%-5.6% 0.2%,0.2(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.1(-0.3)-0.5%,-0.500%0.3%-0.7001.3NAN%01.94   39.42(1.28%)38.88-39.42Range Bound 39.45(0.08%)39.52-39.447
 
21Jun_7_2007-3.7%-4.3% 0.3%,0.3(-0.2)0.2%,0.2(-0.5)-0.6%,-0.600%0.4%-1.9001.4NAN%03.53   38.92(-1.87%)38.92-39.67Downtrend Reversal 38.8(-0.31%)38.76-38.9447
22Jun_6_2007-1.9%-6.3% 0.5%,0.5(-0.1)0.7%,0.7(-0.3)-0.2%,-0.200%0.6%-0.1001.4NAN%02.86   39.66(-1.27%)39.66-39.94Uptrend Consolidation 39.69(0.08%)39.68-39.7360
23Jun_5_2007-0.6%-7.8% 0.6%,0.6(0)0.9%,1(0)0.3%,0.300%0.7%1.2001.4NAN%01.95   40.17(-0.59%)39.96-40.27Uptrend 40.28(0.27%)40.08-40.3674
24Jun_4_20070%-8.4% 0.5%,0.6(0.1)0.9%,1(0.1)0.4%,0.400%0.7%2.1001.3NAN%01.36   40.41(0.2%)40.13-40.43Breakout 40.49(0.21%)40.26-40.5975
25Jun_1_20070%-8.2% 0.5%,0.6(0.2)0.8%,1.1(0.2)0.4%,0.500%0.6%2.3001.1NAN%01.75   40.33(0.57%)40.17-40.39Breakout 40.39(0.14%)40.19-40.4774
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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