Trading Signals: XLY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ XLY: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Jul. 31, 2006

Trading Signals: XLY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Feb. 24, 2021)

(Consumer Discretionary sector ETF)
XLY latest price $32.2800 (0.06%) ($32.1200 - $32.3400) on Mon. Jul. 31, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   N/A
Trend Narrative   Rebound
Average Daily Price Swing   $0.63 (1.96% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.96% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.1% (StdDev 0.96%)
Daily Moving Force   %
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   -0%
Trend Strength   -0.9%
RSI   42
Momentum   2
Latest Price   $32.2800(0.06%)
Forecasted Low Price   32.22(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price   32.38(0.3%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.1%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.6%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   XLY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLY advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLY advance at 0% a week (90% probability)
SPY(91%)    IWM(87%)    QQQ(87%)    PEJ(85%)    XLK(85%)
Factors Impacting XLY price   XLY will advance at least -0% in a week (31% probabilities).
TLT(-40%)    SHY(-28%)    TIP(-18%)    GLD(-2%)    REMX(-0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the rebound

Valuation to SPY -1.3

Relative Volatility 0.6 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   0.1% (StdDev 0.96%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

Next Hour Price   $32.28(0%)
5 Day Moving Average   $32.13(0.47%)
10 Day Moving Average   $31.93(1.1%)
20 Day Moving Average   $32.21(0.22%)
To recent high   -7.2%
To recent low   3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. XLY price fluctuates within 1.96% (three month std-dev: 0.96% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. XLY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060831

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Jul_31_2006	32.21 (-0.2%)	31.93 (0%)	32.13 (0.2%)		(0%)	32.28(0.06%)	32.12-32.34	-0.2(0.1)	0	%	0.1%	0%	-0%	-0.9%	42	2	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	Rebound	32.23(-0.14%)	32.28-32.22	0.42	-7.2%-3%
2	Jul_28_2006	32.26 (-0.2%)	31.86 (-0%)	32.08 (0.6%)		(0%)	32.26(1.22%)	32-32.31	-0.4(0)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.06%	-1.3%	42	2.2	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	0	0	Rebound	32.29(0.08%)	32.19-32.33	2.66	-7.2%-2.9%
3	Jul_27_2006	32.31 (-0.2%)	31.77 (-0.2%)	31.9 (0.2%)		(0%)	31.87(-0.22%)	31.81-32.29	-0.6(-0.6)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.18%	-1.7%	38	2.3	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	The Bottom	31.85(-0.07%)	31.5-32.14	0.76	-8.4%-1.7%
4	Jul_26_2006	32.35 (-0.2%)	31.76 (-0.2%)	31.85 (-0.1%)		(0%)	31.94(-1.15%)	31.92-32.2	-0.8(-0.6)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.26%	-1.8%	36	2.3	Growing Downtrend	Higher(0.5%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	31.72(-0.7%)	31.59-32.01	2.2	-8.2%-1.9%
5	Jul_25_2006	32.39 (-0.2%)	31.8 (-0.4%)	31.87 (0.6%)		(0%)	32.31(0.91%)	31.9-32.39	-0.8(-0.1)	0	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.28%	-1.8%	39	2.3	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	0	0	Downtrend Consolidation	32.14(-0.52%)	32.35-32.07	1.59	-7.1%-3.1%

6	Jul_24_2006	32.42 (-0.2%)	31.84 (-0.4%)	31.69 (0.3%)		(0%)	32.02(2.17%)	31.49-32.07	-1.2(-0.6)	0	0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.36%	-1.8%	33	2.4	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	0	0	After Bottom	31.8(-0.68%)	31.27-32.23	1.37	-7.9%-2.2%
7	Jul_21_2006	32.47 (-0.2%)	31.92 (-0.4%)	31.61 (-0%)		(0%)	31.34(-0.92%)	31.28-31.6	-1.5(-1.6)	0	%	-0.4%	0%	-0.4%	-1.7%	24	2.5	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	The Bottom	31.26(-0.27%)	30.45-31.91	1.72	-9.9%-0%
8	Jul_20_2006	32.55 (-0.2%)	32.07 (-0.6%)	31.62 (-0.1%)		(0%)	31.63(-1.31%)	31.6-32.04	-1.8(-1.4)	0	%	-0.4%	0%	-0.42%	-1.5%	26	2.3	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.3%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	31.27(-1.14%)	31.04-31.79	0.82	-9.1%-0.8%
9	Jul_19_2006	32.63 (-0.2%)	32.22 (-0.4%)	31.65 (-0.2%)		(0%)	32.05(2.01%)	31.48-32.09	-2.1(-0.9)	0	%	-0.3%	0.8%	-0.4%	-1.3%	44	2.2	Growing Downtrend	Higher(0.5%)	0	0	0	Growing Downtrend	31.73(-1%)	31.48-32.14	1.38	-7.8%-2.1%
10	Jul_18_2006	32.67 (-0.2%)	32.32 (-0.4%)	31.72 (-0.9%)		(0%)	31.42(-0.6%)	31.13-31.57	-2.4(-2)	0	-0.2%	-0.5%	1.35%	-0.36%	-1.1%	35	2.3	Growing Downtrend	Higher(1%)	0	0	0	Growing Downtrend	31.11(-0.98%)	30.84-31.6	1.49	-9.7%-0.1%

11	Jul_17_2006	32.76 (-0.2%)	32.53 (-0.4%)	32.02 (-0.8%)		(0%)	31.61(0.7%)	31.39-31.66	-2.2(-2.1)	0	-0.2%	-0.5%	1.1%	-0.28%	-0.7%	32	2	Downtrend Pop	Range(0.4%)	0	0	0	Growing Downtrend	31.42(-0.61%)	31.23-31.79	0.55	-9.1%-0.7%
12	Jul_14_2006	32.84 (-0%)	32.71 (-0.2%)	32.29 (-0.9%)		(0%)	31.39(-1.29%)	31.27-31.71	-1.9(-3)	0	-0.2%	-0.5%	0%	-0.18%	-0.4%	32	1.7	Breakdown	Range(-0.1%)	0	0	0	Growing Downtrend	31.3(-0.3%)	31.16-31.62	1.53	-9.7%-0%
13	Jul_13_2006	32.94 (-0%)	32.92 (-0%)	32.59 (-0.8%)		(0%)	31.8(-1.82%)	31.78-32.26	-1.4(-3.1)	0	-0.2%	-0.3%	0%	-0.08%	-0.1%	35	1.3	Breakdown	Range(0.4%)	0	0	0	Growing Downtrend	31.78(-0.05%)	31.71-31.99	0.59	-8.6%-0%
14	Jul_12_2006	32.99 (-0%)	33.02 (-0%)	32.86 (-0.5%)		(0%)	32.39(-1.58%)	32.35-32.96	-0.6(-2.1)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.02%	0.1%	38	1	Breakdown	Higher(0.6%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	32.4(0.04%)	32.36-32.49	0.68	-6.9%-0%
15	Jul_11_2006	33 (-0%)	33.05 (0%)	33.01 (-0.3%)		(0%)	32.91(-0.09%)	32.58-32.94	-0(-0.3)	0	-0.1%	-0%	0%	0%	0.2%	52	1	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	0	0	0	Range Bound	32.91(0.01%)	32.94-32.9	0.43	-5.4%-1.4%

16	Jul_10_2006	32.99 (-0%)	33.05 (0%)	33.11 (-0.3%)		(0%)	32.94(0.12%)	32.84-33.13	0.3(-0.2)	0	-0.1%	-0%	0%	0.02%	0.2%	50	1	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	0	0	0	N/A	32.95(0.04%)	32.94-32.96	0.28	-5.3%-1.5%
17	Jul_7_2006	33 (-0%)	33.05 (0%)	33.2 (-0.3%)		(0%)	32.9(-0.75%)	32.83-33.3	0.5(-0.4)	0	-0.1%	-0%	0%	0.04%	0.2%	46	1	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	0	0	N/A	32.94(0.13%)	32.92-32.96	0.32	-5.4%-1.4%
18	Jul_6_2006	33.01 (-0%)	33.05 (0%)	33.3 (0.3%)		(0%)	33.15(0.06%)	33.05-33.28	0.8(0.5)	0	0.1%	-0%	0%	0.04%	0.2%	47	1	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	N/A	33.14(-0.04%)	33.07-33.19	0.31	-4.7%-2.2%
19	Jul_5_2006	33.01 (-0%)	33.07 (0%)	33.2 (0.3%)		(0%)	33.13(-0.93%)	32.98-33.19	0.6(0.4)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.04%	0.2%	59	1.1	N/A	Higher(0.7%)	0	0	0	N/A	33.13(0.01%)	33.09-33.17	0.6	-4.7%-2.1%
20	Jul_3_2006	33.01 (-0%)	33.04 (0%)	33.1 (0.2%)		(0%)	33.44(0.15%)	33.29-33.51	0.4(1.4)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.02%	0.1%	65	1.1	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	N/A	33.35(-0.27%)	33.21-33.46	0.29	-3.9%-3.1%

21	Jun_30_2006	33.02 (-0%)	32.99 (0%)	33.02 (0.3%)		(0%)	33.39(0.06%)	33.34-33.5	0(1.1)	0	0.1%	0%	0%	0.02%	-0.1%	59	1.3	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	33.5(0.34%)	33.41-33.57	0.58	-4%-2.9%
22	Jun_29_2006	33.04 (-0%)	32.96 (0%)	32.92 (0.3%)		(0%)	33.37(2.17%)	32.66-33.38	-0.4(0.8)	0	0.1%	0%	0%	-0.02%	-0.2%	52	1.5	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	After Bottom	33.29(-0.25%)	33.19-33.37	0.63	-4.1%-2.9%
23	Jun_28_2006	33.06 (-0%)	32.96 (-0%)	32.83 (-0.3%)		(0%)	32.66(0.09%)	32.5-32.73	-0.8(-1)	0	-0.1%	-0%	0%	-0.04%	-0.4%	42	1.6	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	0	0	0	N/A	32.75(0.28%)	32.57-32.9	0.38	-6.1%-0.7%
24	Jun_27_2006	33.11 (-0%)	32.95 (-0%)	32.93 (-0.1%)		(0%)	32.63(-1.27%)	32.59-33.07	-0.6(-1.2)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.02%	-0.5%	41	1.5	N/A	Higher(0.6%)	0	0	0	Rebound	32.86(0.71%)	32.59-32.98	0.39	-6.2%-0.6%
25	Jun_26_2006	33.14 (-0%)	32.94 (-0%)	32.97 (0%)		(0%)	33.05(0.52%)	32.87-33.05	-0.5(-0.2)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.04%	-0.6%	46	1.6	N/A	Range(0%)	0	0	0	Rebound	33.09(0.11%)	32.99-33.13	0.3	-5%-1.9%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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