Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ XLP: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Mar. 29, 2011

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Mon. Jan. 25, 2021)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $29.8200 (0.47%) ($29.6400 - $29.8300) on Tue. Mar. 29, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   N/A
Trend Narrative   Rebound
Average Daily Price Swing   $0.28 (0.95% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.53% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.2% (StdDev 0.53%)
Daily Moving Force   0.1%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.04%
Trend Strength   -0.3%
Latest Price   $29.8200(0.47%)
Forecasted Low Price   29.79(-0.1%)
Forecasted High Price   29.94(0.4%)
Direction of Next Movement   Higher(0.3%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.7%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLP advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (81% probability)
SPY(81%)    XLU(73%)    XLY(73%)    XLK(70%)    QQQ(69%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will advance at least -0% in a week (21% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    TIP(-14%)    VIXM(-5%)    SHY(-5%)    ROBT(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the rebound

Valuation to SPY -0

Relative Volatility 1.2 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   0.2% (StdDev 0.53%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

Next Hour Price   $29.82(0%)
Support Level   $29.5
5 Day Moving Average   $29.66(0.54%)
10 Day Moving Average   $29.41(1.39%)
20 Day Moving Average   $29.5(1.08%)
To recent high   -0.3%
To recent low   3.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. XLP price fluctuates within 0.95% (three month std-dev: 0.53% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. XLP price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110429

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Mar_29_2011	29.5 (0%)	29.41 (0%)	29.66 (0.3%)		(0%)	29.82(0.47%)	29.64-29.83	-105.9,0.9(1.1)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.04%	-0.3%	N/A	Higher(0.3%)	0	45	1.8	0	0	Rebound	29.69(-0.42%)	29.86-29.62	3.79	-0.3%-3.4%
2	Mar_28_2011	29.5 (0%)	29.35 (-0%)	29.57 (0.2%)		(0%)	29.68(-0.03%)	29.68-29.87	-109.5,0.6(0.7)	0	%	0.1%	0%	-0.02%	-0.4%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	46	1.7	0	0	Range Bound	29.65(-0.11%)	29.63-29.67	6.12	-0.8%-2.9%
3	Mar_25_2011	29.48 (-0%)	29.35 (-0%)	29.52 (0.4%)		(0%)	29.69(0%)	29.67-29.77	-109.3,0.8(0.8)	0	0.1%	0%	0%	-0.04%	-0.5%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	53	1.7	0	0	N/A	29.62(-0.22%)	29.57-29.67	4.58	-0.7%-2.9%
4	Mar_24_2011	29.47 (-0%)	29.33 (-0%)	29.39 (0.5%)		(0%)	29.69(0.92%)	29.51-29.74	-108.9,0.8(0.8)	0	0.1%	0%	0%	-0.08%	-0.5%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	51	1.7	0	0	Downtrend Consolidation	29.65(-0.14%)	29.61-29.66	5.22	-0.7%-2.9%
5	Mar_23_2011	29.47 (-0%)	29.32 (-0.2%)	29.25 (0.4%)		(0%)	29.42(0.17%)	29.24-29.47	-112.5,-0(-0.2)	0	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	-0.5%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	43	1.7	0	0	Downtrend	29.36(-0.21%)	29.33-29.43	5.39	-1.6%-2%

6	Mar_22_2011	29.46 (-0%)	29.36 (-0.2%)	29.13 (0.1%)		(0%)	29.37(-0.14%)	29.32-29.45	-112,-0.2(-0.3)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	-0.3%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0%)	0	50	1.7	0	0	Downtrend	29.28(-0.3%)	29.24-29.38	5.48	-1.8%-1.8%
7	Mar_21_2011	29.47 (-0%)	29.4 (-0.2%)	29.11 (-0.1%)		(0%)	29.41(1.24%)	29.2-29.46	-107.8,-0.2(-0.2)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.14%	-0.3%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0%)	0	49	1.7	0	0	After Bottom	29.33(-0.27%)	29.21-29.43	5.92	-1.7%-2%
8	Mar_18_2011	29.49 (-0%)	29.41 (-0.2%)	29.13 (-0.5%)		(0%)	29.05(0.24%)	28.9-29.15	-104,-1.4(-1.6)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.14%	-0.3%	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.3%)	0	38	1.9	0	0	Growing Downtrend	28.96(-0.32%)	28.87-29.12	7.22	-2.9%-0.7%
9	Mar_17_2011	29.53 (-0%)	29.46 (-0.2%)	29.27 (-0.5%)		(0%)	28.98(0.49%)	28.89-29.17	-112.6,-1.9(-2.1)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.3%)	0	41	1.8	0	0	Growing Downtrend	28.93(-0.18%)	28.87-29.07	7.94	-3.1%-0.5%
10	Mar_16_2011	29.56 (-0%)	29.54 (-0%)	29.41 (-0.7%)		(0%)	28.84(-1.44%)	28.72-29.16	-127.9,-2.9(-3.1)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.75%	-0.04%	-0.1%	Oversold	Higher(1.2%)	0	42	1.5	0	0	Growing Downtrend	28.83(-0.05%)	28.77-28.96	13.05	-3.6%-0%

11	Mar_15_2011	29.59 (0%)	29.61 (0%)	29.63 (-0.3%)		(0%)	29.26(-0.88%)	29.01-29.36	-185.2,-1.9(-2.1)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.02%	0.1%	Oversold	Range(0.2%)	0	46	1.1	0	0	Downtrend Reversal	29.21(-0.17%)	29.2-29.27	12.94	-2.2%-1.3%
12	Mar_14_2011	29.6 (0%)	29.64 (0%)	29.73 (0%)		(0%)	29.52(-0.71%)	29.4-29.66	-212.4,-0.4(-0.6)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	0.06%	0.1%	N/A	Higher(0.3%)	0	49	1	0	0	Uptrend	29.55(0.09%)	29.53-29.55	5.82	-1.3%-2.2%
13	Mar_11_2011	29.61 (0%)	29.66 (0%)	29.72 (0.1%)		(0%)	29.73(0.07%)	29.56-29.81	-212.3,0.6(0.9)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.06%	0.2%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	47	1	0	0	Growing Uptrend	29.75(0.08%)	29.71-29.77	7.37	-0.6%-2.9%
14	Mar_10_2011	29.59 (0%)	29.64 (0%)	29.72 (0%)		(0%)	29.71(-0.67%)	29.67-29.9	-212.1,0.6(0.9)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.04%	0.2%	N/A	Higher(0.4%)	0	49	1	0	0	Uptrend	29.72(0.05%)	29.69-29.74	8.33	-0.7%-2.9%
15	Mar_9_2011	29.58 (0%)	29.61 (0%)	29.69 (0.3%)		(0%)	29.91(0.5%)	29.69-29.96	-212.1,2.1(2.4)	0	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.04%	0.1%	Overbought	Range(0.1%)	0	58	1	0	0	Breakout	29.92(0.03%)	29.85-29.95	14.81	0%-3.6%

16	Mar_8_2011	29.56 (0%)	29.57 (-0%)	29.59 (0.2%)		(0%)	29.76(0.88%)	29.51-29.8	-246.6,1.4(1.7)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.02%	0%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	58	0.9	0	0	Growing Uptrend	29.77(0.03%)	29.73-29.78	5.82	-0.1%-3%
17	Mar_7_2011	29.54 (0%)	29.55 (-0%)	29.54 (-0.1%)		(0%)	29.5(-0.27%)	29.42-29.69	-246.2,-0.1(-0.3)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	0%	0%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	52	0.9	0	0	Correction	29.46(-0.13%)	29.45-29.51	14.75	-1%-2.1%
18	Mar_4_2011	29.53 (0%)	29.58 (0%)	29.54 (0%)		(0%)	29.58(-0.44%)	29.42-29.78	-227.5,0.4(0.4)	0	%	-0%	0%	0.04%	0.2%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	50	1	0	0	Uptrend	29.59(0.05%)	29.57-29.61	14.09	-0.7%-2.9%
19	Mar_3_2011	29.51 (0%)	29.59 (0%)	29.58 (0.2%)		(0%)	29.71(1.02%)	29.52-29.78	-184.9,1.1(1.3)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.04%	0.3%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	58	1.2	0	0	Growing Uptrend	29.74(0.09%)	29.68-29.75	9.05	-0.3%-3.4%
20	Mar_2_2011	29.48 (0%)	29.59 (0%)	29.51 (-0.1%)		(0%)	29.41(-0.27%)	29.35-29.54	-155.3,-0.4(-0.4)	0	%	-0%	0%	0.02%	0.3%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	48	1.5	0	0	N/A	29.45(0.12%)	29.44-29.45	4.99	-1.3%-2.3%

21	Mar_1_2011	29.46 (0%)	29.59 (0%)	29.54 (-0.1%)		(0%)	29.49(-0.77%)	29.47-29.89	-147.7,0.1(0.1)	0	%	0%	0%	0.02%	0.4%	N/A	Higher(0.4%)	0	51	1.6	0	0	N/A	29.5(0.03%)	29.47-29.52	6.72	-1%-2.6%
22	Feb_28_2011	29.43 (0%)	29.57 (0%)	29.56 (-0%)		(0%)	29.72(0.58%)	29.55-29.77	-123.2,1.1(1.2)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.02%	0.5%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	62	1.8	0	0	Range Bound	29.68(-0.12%)	29.61-29.74	5.39	-0.3%-4.9%
23	Feb_25_2011	29.4 (0%)	29.56 (0%)	29.57 (-0.1%)		(0%)	29.55(0.51%)	29.4-29.55	-118.3,0.6(0.6)	0	%	0%	0%	0.04%	0.5%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	59	1.8	0	0	Uptrend	29.57(0.06%)	29.52-29.59	4.06	-0.8%-4.3%
24	Feb_24_2011	29.38 (0%)	29.55 (0%)	29.61 (-0.1%)		(0%)	29.4(-0.41%)	29.27-29.6	-123.4,0.1(0.1)	0	%	-0%	0%	0.06%	0.6%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	61	1.8	0	0	Uptrend Consolidation	29.4(0%)	29.39-29.44	7.42	-1.3%-3.8%
25	Feb_23_2011	29.39 (0%)	29.56 (0.2%)	29.63 (0.1%)		(0%)	29.52(-0.24%)	29.49-29.67	-118.5,0.5(0.5)	0	%	0%	0%	0.1%	0.6%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	70	1.8	0	0	Uptrend	29.58(0.21%)	29.49-29.62	7.4	-0.9%-4.2%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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