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     Fri. Oct. 21, 2011



Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Dec. 1, 2020)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT latest price $113.1300 (-1.06%) ($113.1300 - $114.2000) on Fri. Oct. 21, 2011.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  TLT declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  TLT declines -2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support TLT decline at-0.5% a week (70% probability)
  TIP(72%)    LQD(54%)    SHY(43%)    GLD(24%)    IGOV(20%)  
Factors Impacting TLT price  TLT will decline at least -1.7% in a week (44% probabilities).
  SPY(-47%)    VGK(-44%)    IWM(-44%)    XLY(-43%)    EWI(-43%)  
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   2.1
 
Relative Volatility   -1.5 (options are cheap)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


TLT Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  38%
Bullish Price Move  1.8%
Bearish Probability  63%
Bearish Price Move  -1.8%
Recommended Position Size  -14%
Latest Price  $113.1300
Next Hour Price  $113.13(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $112.49(-0.57%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $109.21(-3.47%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $111.87 - $113.9
Resistance Level  $117.22
5 Day Moving Average  $114.75(-1.41%)
10 Day Moving Average  $115.01(-1.63%)
20 Day Moving Average  $117.22(-3.49%)
To recent high  -8.6%
To recent low  19.1%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
 


  
 
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 2.47% (three month std-dev: 1.78%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20111121

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Oct_21_2011-8.6%-19.1% -0.8%,-0.3(-0.1)-2.5%,-1(0.1)-0.1%,-0.100%-1.9%-1.4001.4NAN%09.91   113.13(-1.06%)113.13-114.2Downtrend 112.49(-0.57%)111.87-113.918
2Oct_20_2011-7.6%-20.4% -0.5%,-0.2(-0.2)-2.7%,-1.1(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.100%-1.8%-1.1001.4NAN%07.83   114.34(-0.71%)114.07-115.67Downtrend 113.63(-0.62%)113.05-114.9933
3Oct_19_2011-7%-21.2% 0%,0(-0.1)-2.5%,-1(-0.1)0.1%,000%-1.8%-1001.3NAN%06.63   115.16(-0.03%)114.16-115.74Correction 112.32(-2.47%)111.85-114.1945
4Oct_18_2011-7%-21.3% 0.2%,0.1(-0.1)-2.3%,-0.9(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.100%-1.4%-1.1001.3NAN%012.5   115.2(-0.62%)114.3-116.82Correction 112.58(-2.27%)112.15-114.3748
5Oct_17_2011-6.4%-22% 0.4%,0.1(-0)-1.8%,-0.8(-0.2)-0.1%,-000%-0.9%-0.8001.4NAN%09.67   115.92(1.73%)114.22-115.97Correction 113.51(-2.08%)113.08-115.2149
 
6Oct_14_2011-8%-19.9% 0.4%,0.2(-0.1)-1.4%,-0.5(-0.1)-0.7%,-0.300%-0.2%-1.4001.5NAN%08.41   113.95(-1.45%)113.61-114.61Correction 111.66(-2.01%)111.23-113.3540
7Oct_13_2011-6.6%-21.7% 0.6%,0.2(-0)-1.1%,-0.4(0)-0.6%,-0.200%0.4%-0.8001.6NAN%011.26   115.63(1%)114.96-116.55Downtrend 115.43(-0.17%)115.14-116.1238
8Oct_12_2011-7.5%-20.5% 0.7%,0.2(-0.1)-1.2%,-0.4(-0.2)-1.2%,-0.400%0.8%-1001.6NAN%014.03   114.49(-1.45%)113.48-115.12Correction 112.26(-1.95%)111.82-113.9931
9Oct_11_2011-6.2%-22.3% 1.1%,0.4(-0.1)-0.7%,-0.2(-0.2)-1%,-0.300%1.1%-0.5001.7NAN%07.52   116.18(-0.33%)115.9-117.36Correction 114.46(-1.48%)114.07-11647
10Oct_10_2011-5.8%-22.7% 1.4%,0.4(-0.1)0.1%,0(-0.3)-1.2%,-0.400%1.3%-0.3001.7NAN%03.57   116.57(-1.41%)115.8-116.91Downtrend Reversal 115.45(-0.96%)115.13-116.7556
 
11Oct_7_2011-4.5%-25.7% 1.8%,0.6(-0.1)1.1%,0.3(-0.3)-0.4%,-0.100%1.7%0.1001.8NAN%011.56   118.24(-0.74%)116.85-119.05Uptrend Consolidation 118.29(0.04%)118.05-118.9960
12Oct_6_2011-3.8%-26.7% 2.1%,0.6(-0.1)2%,0.6(-0.3)0.2%,0.100%2.1%0.4001.9NAN%09.68   119.12(-1.85%)119.12-121.01Uptrend Consolidation 119(-0.1%)118.53-120.4365
13Oct_5_2011-2%-29.3% 2.3%,0.7(0)2.9%,0.8(-0)0.7%,0.200%2.7%1002NAN%014.28   121.36(-0.72%)120.66-121.78Uptrend 123(1.35%)120.53-124.0770
14Oct_4_2011-1.3%-30.3% 2.2%,0.7(-0)2.9%,0.9(0.1)0.9%,0.300%2.9%1.4001.9NAN%017.3   122.24(-1.27%)122.18-125.03Uptrend 123.77(1.25%)121.11-124.9267
15Oct_3_20110%-31.9% 2.3%,0.7(0)2.7%,0.8(0.1)0.8%,0.300%2.6%2001.9NAN%015.88   123.81(2.49%)121.11-123.81Overbought 120.99(-2.28%)117.35-126.4371
 
16Sep_30_2011-1.9%-29% 2.2%,0.8(-0)2.4%,0.8(0)0%,000%2.4%1.5001.7NAN%013.55   120.8(2.51%)118.99-120.91Uptrend 121.85(0.87%)119.73-122.7663
17Sep_29_2011-4.3%-25.9% 2.3%,0.8(-0.1)2.3%,0.8(-0.2)-0.9%,-0.300%2.2%0.8001.8NAN%012.34   117.84(0.69%)117.09-118.82Uptrend 118.9(0.9%)117.22-119.6260
18Sep_28_2011-4.9%-25% 2.7%,0.8(-0)2.8%,0.8(-0.1)-0.3%,-0.100%2.1%0.6001.9NAN%012.64   117.03(-0.03%)115.76-117.11Uptrend 118.66(1.39%)116.54-119.5661
19Sep_27_2011-4.9%-25% 2.8%,0.8(0.1)3.2%,0.9(0.1)0.4%,0.100%2.2%0.7002NAN%013.59   117.07(-1.53%)116.26-117.3Uptrend 119.05(1.69%)116.56-120.1163
20Sep_26_2011-3.4%-27% 2.5%,0.7(0.1)2.9%,0.8(0.1)0.8%,0.200%2.2%1.3002.1NAN%015.11   118.89(-1.61%)118.58-120.57Uptrend 120.7(1.52%)117.8-121.9460
 
21Sep_23_2011-1.9%-29.1% 2.2%,0.6(0.1)2.7%,0.7(0.1)1.5%,0.400%2.2%1.9002.1NAN%015.17   120.83(-1.86%)120.83-123.36Growing Uptrend 122.8(1.63%)119.3-123.6867
22Sep_22_20110%-31.5% 1.7%,0.5(0.2)2.3%,0.7(0.2)2.1%,0.600%2.2%2.8002NAN%025.04   123.12(3.76%)121.23-123.87Breakout 124.23(0.9%)120.91-125.6477
23Sep_21_20110%-26.7% 1.1%,0.4(0)1.6%,0.6(0.1)1%,0.300%1.9%2.2001.7NAN%018.69   118.66(3.31%)114.2-118.79Overbought 115.78(-2.43%)112.97-12076
24Sep_20_20110%-22.7% 0.9%,0.4(-0.1)1.3%,0.5(-0.1)0.5%,0.200%1.7%1.4001.5NAN%06.36   114.86(0.42%)114.05-114.87Uptrend 115.22(0.31%)114.09-115.765
25Sep_19_20110%-22.2% 1.1%,0.5(-0.1)1.6%,0.7(-0.1)0.1%,000%1.8%1.4001.5NAN%013.03   114.38(1.91%)114.12-115.19Uptrend 114.81(0.38%)113.65-115.368
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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