Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Apr. 29, 2011

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jan. 15, 2021)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $93.8900 (0.31%) ($93.3500 - $93.9200) on Fri. Apr. 29, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative   Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $1.22 (1.32% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.77% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.2% (StdDev 0.77%)
Daily Moving Force   0.1%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.22%
Latest Price   $93.8900(0.31%)
Forecasted Low Price   93.7(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price   94.36(0.5%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.2%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.2%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (70% probability)
TIP(72%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(44%)    GLD(23%)    IGOV(19%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.1% in a week (44% probabilities).
SPY(-47%)    VGK(-44%)    IWM(-44%)    EWI(-43%)    EWG(-43%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0.5

Relative Volatility 1.7 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   0.1% (StdDev 0.77%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

Next Hour Price   $93.89(0%)
Support Level   $92.17
5 Day Moving Average   $93.44(0.48%)
10 Day Moving Average   $93.15(0.79%)
20 Day Moving Average   $92.17(1.87%)
To recent high   -0%
To recent low   6.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.32% (three month std-dev: 0.77% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110529

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Apr_29_2011	92.17 (0.3%)	93.15 (1.1%)	93.44 (0.3%)		(0%)	93.89(0.31%)	93.35-93.92	1.3(1.4)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.22%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	79	1.7	0	0	Uptrend	94.32(0.46%)	93.58-94.64	5.91	-0%-6.5%
2	Apr_28_2011	92.07 (0.3%)	92.91 (1.1%)	93.18 (0.2%)		(0%)	93.6(0.76%)	92.97-93.6	1.2(1.3)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.22%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	72	1.6	0	0	Uptrend	93.97(0.4%)	93.33-94.25	8.11	-0.4%-6.1%
3	Apr_27_2011	92 (0.2%)	92.71 (1.2%)	92.99 (-0.1%)		(0%)	92.89(-1.02%)	92.75-93.57	0.6(0.8)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.22%	Uptrend Consolidation	Higher(0.7%)	0	68	1.6	0	0	Uptrend	93.23(0.37%)	92.75-93.45	8.87	-1.1%-5.3%
4	Apr_26_2011	91.93 (0.2%)	92.52 (1.2%)	93.07 (0.2%)		(0%)	93.85(0.97%)	93.18-93.87	1.5(1.8)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.2%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	60	1.5	0	0	Growing Uptrend	94.23(0.4%)	93.52-94.4	7.51	-0.1%-6.4%
5	Apr_25_2011	91.84 (0.1%)	92.14 (1%)	92.88 (0.1%)		(0%)	92.95(0.38%)	92.5-92.98	0.9(1.1)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.16%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	53	1.4	0	0	N/A	93.04(0.1%)	92.42-93.55	3.63	-1%-5.4%

6	Apr_21_2011	91.79 (0%)	91.85 (0.8%)	92.82 (0.3%)		(0%)	92.6(-0.09%)	92.56-93.23	0.7(0.9)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.12%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	51	1.3	0	0	N/A	92.67(0.08%)	92.24-93.03	3.37	-1.4%-5%
7	Apr_20_2011	91.77 (-0.1%)	91.63 (0.5%)	92.59 (0.3%)		(0%)	92.68(-0.64%)	92.61-93.26	0.7(0.9)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.06%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.6%)	0	52	1.4	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	93(0.34%)	92.73-93.17	6.76	-1.3%-5.1%
8	Apr_19_2011	91.78 (-0.2%)	91.41 (0.2%)	92.35 (0.5%)		(0%)	93.28(0.43%)	92.76-93.28	1.4(1.5)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.02%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	55	1.4	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	93.61(0.35%)	93.33-93.79	5.3	-0.7%-5.8%
9	Apr_18_2011	91.76 (-0.3%)	91.25 (-0%)	91.88 (0.6%)		(0%)	92.88(0.23%)	91.45-93.1	1(1.1)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.02%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	58	1.3	0	0	Rebound	92.4(-0.52%)	92.88-92.19	12.04	-1.1%-5.3%
10	Apr_15_2011	91.75 (-0.4%)	91.16 (-0.4%)	91.3 (0.6%)		(0%)	92.67(1.36%)	92.07-92.71	0.8(0.9)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.08%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	50	1.4	0	0	Rebound	92.19(-0.52%)	92.52-92.05	10.22	-1.3%-5.1%

11	Apr_14_2011	91.78 (-0.5%)	91.08 (-0.6%)	90.74 (0.2%)		(0%)	91.43(-0.08%)	91.22-91.77	-0.2(-0.3)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	43	1.4	0	0	Downtrend	91.23(-0.22%)	91.12-91.48	7.61	-2.7%-3.7%
12	Apr_13_2011	91.86 (-0.5%)	91.13 (-0.7%)	90.53 (0.2%)		(0%)	91.5(0.63%)	90.44-91.5	-0.2(-0.3)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.16%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	42	1.5	0	0	Downtrend	91.24(-0.28%)	91.11-91.56	7.96	-2.6%-3.8%
13	Apr_12_2011	91.97 (-0.4%)	91.2 (-0.9%)	90.33 (-0.2%)		(0%)	90.93(1.08%)	90.56-91.24	-0.8(-0.9)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.18%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	0	32	1.5	0	0	After Bottom	90.87(-0.07%)	90.18-91.43	7.69	-3.2%-3.1%
14	Apr_11_2011	92.07 (-0.2%)	91.27 (-1%)	90.53 (-0.5%)		(0%)	89.96(0.09%)	89.65-90.22	-1.7(-1.9)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.18%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	0	21	1.5	0	0	Growing Downtrend	89.71(-0.28%)	89.42-90.31	5.74	-4.2%-2%
15	Apr_8_2011	92.17 (-0%)	91.51 (-0.9%)	91 (-0.5%)		(0%)	89.88(-0.53%)	89.85-90.32	-2.1(-2.3)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.14%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.2%)	0	25	1.4	0	0	Downtrend	89.72(-0.18%)	89.49-90.27	7.61	-4.3%-1.9%

16	Apr_7_2011	92.27 (0.1%)	91.75 (-0.9%)	91.46 (-0.4%)		(0%)	90.36(-0.2%)	90.13-90.76	-2(-2.2)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	0	24	1.2	0	0	Correction	89.56(-0.89%)	89.42-90.1	9.27	-3.8%-2.5%
17	Apr_6_2011	92.37 (0.4%)	91.97 (-0.8%)	91.81 (-0.4%)		(0%)	90.54(-1.5%)	90.54-91.79	-1.9(-2.2)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.08%	Growing Downtrend	Higher(0.5%)	0	28	1.2	0	0	Correction	89.91(-0.7%)	89.79-90.37	9.09	-3.6%-2.7%
18	Apr_5_2011	92.39 (0.4%)	92.23 (-0.6%)	92.17 (0.1%)		(0%)	91.92(-0.4%)	91.67-92.38	-0.4(-0.5)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	30	1.3	0	0	The Bottom	91.98(0.06%)	91.78-92.13	9.95	-2.1%-4.2%
19	Apr_4_2011	92.29 (0.3%)	92.35 (-0.5%)	92.1 (-0%)		(0%)	92.29(0.11%)	92.13-92.58	0(0)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.06%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0%)	0	46	1.4	0	0	Correction	91.59(-0.76%)	91.46-92.13	4.47	-1.7%-4.6%
20	Apr_1_2011	92.2 (0.2%)	92.41 (-0.4%)	92.11 (0%)		(0%)	92.19(0.07%)	91.42-92.27	0.1(-0)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	57	1.4	0	0	Correction	92.08(-0.12%)	92.08-92.08	7.86	-1.9%-4.5%

21	Mar_31_2011	92.14 (0.1%)	92.53 (-0.3%)	92.1 (-0.1%)		(0%)	92.13(-0.21%)	91.61-92.72	0.1(-0)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.04%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	56	1.5	0	0	Correction	92.01(-0.13%)	92.01-92.01	9.66	-2.1%-4.5%
22	Mar_30_2011	92.04 (0%)	92.64 (-0.1%)	92.16 (-0.2%)		(0%)	92.32(0.8%)	91.56-92.32	0.3(0.2)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.02%	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	0	53	1.5	0	0	Range Bound	92.21(-0.12%)	92.14-92.26	5.05	-1.9%-4.7%
23	Mar_29_2011	91.98 (0.1%)	92.79 (0.2%)	92.31 (-0.4%)		(0%)	91.59(-0.77%)	91.57-92.5	-0.3(-0.3)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.04%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	59	1.6	0	0	Range Bound	91.67(0.09%)	91.71-91.65	6.49	-2.7%-3.9%
24	Mar_28_2011	91.98 (0.2%)	92.93 (0.6%)	92.64 (-0.1%)		(0%)	92.3(0.14%)	92-92.67	0.2(0.2)	0	%	0%	0%	0.12%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	68	1.5	0	0	Uptrend	92.49(0.21%)	92.24-92.6	4	-1.9%-4.7%
25	Mar_25_2011	92.02 (0.4%)	92.88 (0.8%)	92.76 (-0.3%)		(0%)	92.17(-0.25%)	92.02-92.96	0.1(0.1)	0	-0.1%	0%	0%	0.16%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	63	1.4	0	0	Uptrend	92.41(0.26%)	92.14-92.53	6.45	-2.1%-4.5%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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