Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ TLT: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Sep. 3, 2010

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jan. 15, 2021)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $103.5800 (-1.24%) ($102.7000 - $103.9400) on Fri. Sep. 3, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   N/A
Trend Narrative   Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $2.77 (2.64% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.08% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   -0.1% (StdDev 1.08%)
Daily Moving Force   -0.1%
Rebound Strength   None(0%)
Trend   0.14%
Latest Price   $103.5800(-1.24%)
Forecasted Low Price   103.22(-0.35%)
Forecasted High Price   104.31(0.7%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.3%)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   3.3%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   TLT declines -0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (71% probability)
TIP(72%)    LQD(57%)    SHY(46%)    GLD(22%)    IGOV(18%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.1% in a week (44% probabilities).
SPY(-47%)    VGK(-44%)    IWM(-44%)    XLY(-43%)    EWI(-43%)
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 2

Relative Volatility 0.7 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   -0.2% (StdDev 1.08%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

Next Hour Price   $103.58(0%)
5 Day Moving Average   $106.08(-2.36%)
10 Day Moving Average   $106.49(-2.73%)
20 Day Moving Average   $104.89(-1.25%)
To recent high   -4.6%
To recent low   8.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 2.64% (three month std-dev: 1.08% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20101003

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Sep_3_2010	104.89 (0.6%)	106.49 (0.1%)	106.08 (-0.3%)		(0%)	103.58(-1.24%)	102.7-103.94	-0.4(-0.5)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.14%	N/A	Range(0.4%)	0	49	2.4	0	0	Uptrend	104.12(0.52%)	103.79-104.26	9.21	-4.6%-8.8%
2	Sep_2_2010	104.75 (0.6%)	106.77 (0.3%)	106.43 (-0.7%)		(0%)	104.88(-1.06%)	104.4-105.3	0(0)	0	-0.1%	-0%	0%	0.22%	N/A	Range(0.4%)	0	60	2.7	0	0	Uptrend Consolidation	104.94(0.06%)	104.73-105.58	8.17	-3.4%-10.1%
3	Sep_1_2010	104.49 (0.6%)	106.93 (0.5%)	107.14 (-0.3%)		(0%)	106(-2.36%)	105.09-107.05	0.4(0.5)	0	-0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.36%	Uptrend Consolidation	Higher(1.3%)	0	67	2.9	0	0	Uptrend	107.42(1.34%)	105.75-108.14	12.48	-2.4%-11.3%
4	Aug_31_2010	104.14 (0.6%)	106.82 (0.7%)	107.42 (0.2%)		(0%)	108.56(1.11%)	107.62-108.65	1.2(1.3)	0	%	0.4%	0%	0.42%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	0	74	3.1	0	0	Uptrend	110.41(1.7%)	107.77-111.54	8.4	0%-14%
5	Aug_30_2010	103.67 (0.6%)	106.39 (0.8%)	107.26 (0.2%)		(0%)	107.37(1.92%)	105.82-107.4	1(1.1)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.48%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	75	3.1	0	0	Uptrend	109.46(1.95%)	106.68-110.66	5.54	-1%-12.7%

6	Aug_27_2010	103.24 (0.6%)	106.14 (0.9%)	107 (-0.1%)		(0%)	105.35(-2.83%)	105.2-108.33	0.6(0.6)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.52%	Uptrend Consolidation	Higher(1.6%)	0	73	3.1	0	0	After Top	107.53(2.07%)	104.11-110.32	13.51	-2.8%-10.6%
7	Aug_26_2010	103 (0.6%)	105.88 (1%)	107.14 (0.4%)		(0%)	108.42(0.94%)	107.29-108.49	1.5(1.6)	0	0.1%	0.6%	0%	0.58%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.7%)	0	85	3.3	0	0	Uptrend	111.03(2.41%)	107.37-112.6	7.04	0%-13.9%
8	Aug_25_2010	102.51 (0.6%)	105.16 (1.1%)	106.69 (0.6%)		(0%)	107.41(-0.32%)	107.07-109.34	1.4(1.6)	0	0.1%	0.5%	0%	0.58%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	0	86	3.1	0	0	Uptrend	109.89(2.31%)	106.51-111.35	13.31	-0.3%-12.8%
9	Aug_24_2010	102.08 (0.5%)	104.55 (1.1%)	106.11 (0.7%)		(0%)	107.76(1.6%)	106.67-108.13	1.7(1.9)	0	0.1%	0.7%	0%	0.56%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	0	89	3	0	0	Uptrend	109.99(2.07%)	106.74-111.38	9.81	0%-13.2%
10	Aug_23_2010	101.61 (0.5%)	103.78 (1.1%)	105.41 (0.2%)		(0%)	106.06(0.02%)	105.25-106.19	1.5(1.7)	0	%	0.5%	0%	0.5%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.5%)	0	80	2.8	0	0	Uptrend	107.87(1.71%)	105.22-109.01	6.36	-0.1%-11.4%

11	Aug_20_2010	101.27 (0.5%)	103.15 (1.3%)	105.17 (0.7%)		(0%)	106.04(-0.11%)	105.84-106.83	1.7(1.9)	0	0.1%	0.5%	0%	0.5%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.7%)	0	81	2.6	0	0	Growing Uptrend	108.07(1.91%)	105.19-108.78	7.04	-0.1%-11.4%
12	Aug_19_2010	100.93 (0.5%)	102.55 (1.2%)	104.42 (1%)		(0%)	106.16(1.56%)	104.64-106.61	2.1(2.3)	0	0.2%	0.6%	-0.4%	0.44%	Growing Uptrend	Lower(-0.5%)	0	69	2.2	0	0	Breakout	107.43(1.2%)	105.22-108.39	13.13	0%-11.5%
13	Aug_18_2010	100.63 (0.4%)	101.82 (1.2%)	103.39 (0.6%)		(0%)	104.53(0.27%)	104.49-105.65	1.8(2)	0	0.1%	0.5%	0%	0.36%	Growing Uptrend Correction	Higher(0.6%)	0	70	1.9	0	0	Breakout	105.37(0.8%)	103.84-106.02	7.72	-0.3%-9.8%
14	Aug_17_2010	100.48 (0.4%)	101.22 (1.1%)	102.74 (0.8%)		(0%)	104.25(-0.57%)	104-104.86	2(2.2)	0	0.2%	0.4%	0%	0.3%	Uptrend Dip	Higher(0.9%)	0	69	1.7	0	0	Breakout	104.85(0.58%)	103.59-105.4	6.76	-0.6%-10.3%
15	Aug_16_2010	100.26 (0.4%)	100.71 (1%)	101.88 (1%)		(0%)	104.85(2.5%)	104.07-104.89	2.8(3.1)	0	0.2%	0.5%	-1.5%	0.24%	Growing Uptrend	Lower(-2.7%)	0	73	1.5	0	0	Breakout	105.2(0.33%)	104.05-105.69	7.98	0%-10.9%

16	Aug_13_2010	100 (0.3%)	100.07 (0.8%)	100.85 (0.4%)		(0%)	102.29(1.25%)	101.48-102.45	2(2.2)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.14%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	61	1.1	0	0	Breakout	102.38(0.09%)	101.86-102.61	7.84	0%-9.7%
17	Aug_12_2010	99.91 (0.3%)	99.85 (0.7%)	100.42 (0.4%)		(0%)	101.03(-0.25%)	100.87-101.94	1(1.2)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.1%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	0	55	1	0	0	Uptrend	101.14(0.11%)	100.84-101.26	7.59	-1%-9%
18	Aug_11_2010	99.86 (0.2%)	99.64 (0.3%)	100.01 (0.5%)		(0%)	101.28(1.34%)	100.31-101.39	1.4(1.6)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.06%	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	50	0.9	0	0	Uptrend	101.3(0.02%)	101.03-101.42	6.78	-0.7%-9.3%
19	Aug_10_2010	99.76 (0%)	99.39 (-0.3%)	99.47 (0.1%)		(0%)	99.94(0.21%)	99.47-101.01	0.1(0.2)	0	%	0.1%	0%	-0.04%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	38	0.9	0	0	N/A	99.87(-0.07%)	99.87-99.87	11.25	-2%-7.9%
20	Aug_9_2010	99.69 (-0.2%)	99.27 (-0.6%)	99.35 (0.2%)		(0%)	99.73(-0.37%)	99.61-99.98	0(0)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.08%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	47	0.9	0	0	Downtrend	99.64(-0.09%)	99.59-99.73	2.58	-2.3%-7.6%

21	Aug_6_2010	99.66 (-0.3%)	99.24 (-0.8%)	99.15 (-0.1%)		(0%)	100.1(1.09%)	99.49-100.21	0.5(0.5)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.12%	N/A	Range(0%)	0	49	0.9	0	0	Downtrend	99.91(-0.19%)	99.87-100.01	6.04	-1.9%-8%
22	Aug_5_2010	99.62 (-0.4%)	99.2 (-0.9%)	99.23 (0%)		(0%)	99.02(0.47%)	98.84-99.49	-0.6(-0.7)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	42	0.9	0	0	Downtrend	98.9(-0.12%)	98.8-99.13	3.7	-3%-6.9%
23	Aug_4_2010	99.66 (-0.5%)	99.37 (-0.8%)	99.21 (-0.1%)		(0%)	98.56(-0.77%)	98.56-99.51	-0.9(-1.2)	0	%	-0.3%	0%	-0.14%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.1%)	0	43	0.9	0	0	Growing Downtrend	98.45(-0.11%)	98.34-98.72	3.82	-3.4%-6.4%
24	Aug_3_2010	99.76 (-0.5%)	99.7 (-0.5%)	99.29 (0.1%)		(0%)	99.32(0.58%)	98.93-99.66	-0.4(-0.5)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.1%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	51	0.9	0	0	Downtrend	99.24(-0.08%)	99.18-99.39	4.36	-2.7%-8.3%
25	Aug_2_2010	99.86 (-0.5%)	99.8 (-0.4%)	99.16 (-0.2%)		(0%)	98.75(-1.72%)	98.75-99.33	-1(-1.1)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.08%	N/A	Higher(0.8%)	0	54	0.9	0	0	Growing Downtrend	98.7(-0.05%)	98.61-98.94	5.77	-3.2%-7.7%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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