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     Thu. Dec. 18, 2008



Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Dec. 2, 2020)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT latest price $122.1300 (2.1%) ($120.4500 - $123.1500) on Thu. Dec. 18, 2008.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Breakout
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  TLT advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  TLT advances 3.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support TLT advance at 1.1% a week (69% probability)
  TIP(67%)    SHY(49%)    LQD(41%)    GLD(17%)    EDOC(9%)  
Factors Impacting TLT price  TLT will decline at least -1% in a week (42% probabilities).
  SPY(-44%)    VGK(-42%)    IWM(-42%)    XLY(-41%)    EWI(-41%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Buy the breakout
 
Valuation to SPY   3.3
 
Relative Volatility   0.4 (options are faily valued)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


TLT Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  90%
Bullish Price Move  1.5%
Bearish Probability  10%
Bearish Price Move  -1.5%
Recommended Position Size  53%
Latest Price  $122.1300
Next Hour Price  $122.13(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $126.12(3.27%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $119.79 - $128.84
Support Level  $110.65
5 Day Moving Average  $116.85(4.52%)
10 Day Moving Average  $114.4(6.76%)
20 Day Moving Average  $110.65(10.38%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  31.7%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
 


  
 
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 4.78% (three month std-dev: 1.53%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20090118

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Dec_18_20080%-31.7% 4.9%,1(0.1)3.4%,0.7(0.1)1.7%,0.400%3.4%2.2003.1NAN%04.44   122.13(2.1%)120.45-123.15Breakout 126.12(3.27%)119.79-128.8488
2Dec_17_20080%-29% 4.6%,1(0)3.2%,0.7(0)1.3%,0.300%3.5%2003NAN%06.43   119.62(2.71%)119.26-121.13Uptrend 123.08(2.89%)117.54-125.4588
3Dec_16_20080%-25.6% 4.4%,0.9(0)3%,0.6(-0.1)0.7%,0.200%3.7%1.6003.2NAN%04.02   116.46(2.47%)113.97-116.9Uptrend 119.85(2.91%)114.79-122.0286
4Dec_15_20080%-22.6% 4.3%,0.8(0)3.4%,0.7(-0.1)0.6%,0.100%4%1.2003.5NAN%01.71   113.65(1.14%)112.05-113.94Uptrend 117.51(3.4%)112.35-119.7288
5Dec_12_2008-0%-21.2% 4.2%,0.8(0)3.7%,0.7(-0)0.3%,0.100%4.5%1003.6NAN%02.55   112.37(0%)110.34-112.56Uptrend 116.51(3.68%)111.14-118.8178
 
6Dec_11_2008-0%-21.2% 4.1%,0.7(-0)3.7%,0.6(-0.1)0%,000%4.8%1.1003.9NAN%02.42   112.37(0.2%)110.87-112.43Uptrend 116.58(3.75%)110.87-119.0370
7Dec_10_2008-0.2%-21% 4.2%,0.7(0)4.2%,0.7(-0.1)0.4%,0.100%4.9%1.2004NAN%02.41   112.15(-0.24%)111.12-112.15Uptrend 117.16(4.47%)110.62-119.9678
8Dec_9_20080%-21.3% 4.2%,0.7(-0)4.8%,0.8(-0.1)0.5%,0.100%5.1%1.3004NAN%02.06   112.42(1.98%)110.25-112.53Uptrend 117.95(4.92%)110.69-121.0581
9Dec_8_2008-1.8%-18.9% 4.2%,0.7(-0)5.2%,0.9(-0.1)0.1%,000%4.9%1.2004NAN%02.12   110.24(-0.22%)109.69-111.25Uptrend 115.87(5.11%)108.55-119.0181
10Dec_5_2008-1.6%-19.2% 4.3%,0.7(0)6%,1(-0.1)0.9%,0.100%5%1.3004.1NAN%04.56   110.48(-1.62%)110.42-113Uptrend 116.88(5.79%)108.78-120.3582
 
11Dec_4_20080%-21.1% 4.2%,0.7(0.1)6.7%,1.1(0.1)1.5%,0.200%5.3%1.8004NAN%02.83   112.3(1.97%)110.37-112.49Uptrend 119.48(6.39%)110.1-123.4988
12Dec_3_20080%-18.8% 3.8%,0.7(0.1)6.3%,1.1(0.1)1.1%,0.200%4.9%1.7003.8NAN%02.95   110.13(0.28%)108.56-110.81Uptrend 116.23(5.54%)108.12-119.7178
13Dec_2_20080%-18.5% 3.5%,0.7(0.1)6%,1.1(0.1)1.6%,0.300%4.4%1.9003.6NAN%03.29   109.82(0.38%)108.19-110.37Growing Uptrend 116.4(5.99%)107.78-118.5578
14Dec_1_20080%-18% 2.8%,0.6(0.1)5.3%,1.1(0.1)1.3%,0.300%3.9%2.2003.3NAN%04.03   109.4(3.48%)107.13-110.41Breakout 113.44(3.69%)107.1-116.1678
15Nov_28_20080%-14% 2.3%,0.5(0)4.8%,1.1(0)0.2%,0.100%3.4%1.8003.1NAN%00.99   105.72(1.24%)104.94-105.97Uptrend 108.84(2.95%)104.08-110.8776
 
16Nov_26_20080%-12.6% 2.1%,0.5(0.1)4.7%,1.2(0.1)1%,0.300%2.8%1.8002.9NAN%02.58   104.43(0.13%)104.09-105.62Growing Uptrend 107.83(3.26%)102.96-109.0672
17Nov_25_2008-0.1%-12.5% 1.7%,0.5(0.1)4.2%,1.1(0.2)1.5%,0.400%2.4%2.1002.6NAN%02.63   104.29(2.94%)102.68-104.47Breakout 106.65(2.26%)102.76-108.3169
18Nov_24_2008-3%-9.3% 1.3%,0.4(0.1)3.5%,1.1(0.1)1.2%,0.400%1.9%1.6002.4NAN%01.59   101.31(-1.56%)101-102.29Growing Uptrend 103.34(2%)100.33-104.0967
19Nov_21_2008-1.4%-11% 1.1%,0.4(0.1)3.1%,1(0.2)1.6%,0.500%1.5%2.4002.2NAN%03.25   102.92(-1.45%)101.45-103.98Breakout 104.24(1.28%)101.53-105.475
20Nov_20_20080%-12.6% 0.8%,0.3(0.2)2.3%,0.9(0.5)2.3%,0.900%0.9%3.5001.9NAN%05.46   104.43(5.17%)101.1-104.44Breakout 105.22(0.76%)102.67-106.3279
 
21Nov_19_20080%-7.1% 0.3%,0.2(0.1)1.2%,0.7(0.2)0.8%,0.500%0.2%2.5001.4NAN%02.09   99.3(2.56%)97.21-99.37Breakout 99.47(0.17%)98.51-99.8866
22Nov_18_2008-2.4%-4.4% 0.2%,0.1(0)0.8%,0.6(0.2)0.4%,0.300%-0.1%1.3001.2NAN%00.92   96.82(1.29%)95.96-97Uptrend 96.96(0.14%)96.48-97.1656
23Nov_17_2008-3.6%-3.1% 0.1%,0.1(0)0.5%,0.4(0.4)0.2%,0.100%-0.2%0.4001.2NAN%00.49   95.59(0.44%)95.29-96.03N/A 95.62(0.03%)95.3-95.8850
24Nov_14_2008-4%-3.2% 0.1%,0(0.1)0%,0(0.4)0.2%,0.100%-0.4%0.1001.2NAN%01.06   95.17(1.98%)94.79-95.46Range Bound 95.18(0.01%)95.11-95.2343
25Nov_13_2008-5.9%-1.8% -0.1%,-0.1(0)-0.5%,-0.3(0.1)-0.3%,-0.200%-0.6%-1.3001.2NAN%01.63   93.32(-2.4%)93.25-95.25Downtrend 93.28(-0.04%)93.13-93.6436
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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