Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Nov. 21, 2008

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Jan. 26, 2021)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $102.9200 (-1.45%) ($101.4500 - $103.9800) on Fri. Nov. 21, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Overbought
Trend Narrative   Uptrend Dip
Average Daily Price Swing   $2.89 (3.01% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.36% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.8% (StdDev 1.36%)
Daily Moving Force   0.3%
Correction Force   Weak (-0.6%)
Trend   0.5%
Trend Strength   1.5%
Latest Price   $102.9200(-1.45%)
Forecasted Low Price   101.89(-1%)
Forecasted High Price   103.64(0.7%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(-0.5%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   6.3%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   TLT advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 3.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0.1% a week (69% probability)
TIP(67%)    SHY(48%)    LQD(40%)    GLD(17%)    FIVG(5%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will advance at least 0.1% in a week (42% probabilities).
SPY(-44%)    VGK(-42%)    IWM(-42%)    EWI(-42%)    XLY(-41%)
Explanation The rally is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the Dip

Valuation to SPY 2.9

Relative Volatility 3.5 (options are extremely expensive)

Market Trend Strength   1% (StdDev 1.36%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

Next Hour Price   $102.92(0%)
Support Level   $96.05
5 Day Moving Average   $99.81(3.12%)
10 Day Moving Average   $97.47(5.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $96.05(7.15%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   11%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 3.01% (three month std-dev: 1.36% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20081221

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Nov_21_2008	96.05 (0.2%)	97.47 (0.6%)	99.81 (1.6%)		(0%)	102.92(-1.45%)	101.45-103.98	-34.5,2.1(2.4)	0	0.3%	0.8%	-0.6%	0.5%	1.5%	Overbought	Lower(-0.7%)	0	75	2.2	0	0	Uptrend Dip	106.39(3.37%)	100.44-107.87	3.25	-1.4%-11%
2	Nov_20_2008	95.7 (0.2%)	96.57 (0.4%)	98.26 (2.3%)		(0%)	104.43(5.17%)	101.1-104.44	-39.6,3.2(3.5)	0	0.5%	0.9%	-1.95%	0.38%	0.9%	Overbought	Lower(-3.3%)	0	79	1.9	0	0	Breakout	105.27(0.8%)	102.81-106.32	5.46	0%-12.6%
3	Nov_19_2008	95.3 (0%)	95.53 (0.2%)	96.04 (0.8%)		(0%)	99.3(2.56%)	97.21-99.37	-60.4,2.3(2.5)	0	0.2%	0.4%	-1%	0.18%	0.2%	Overbought	Lower(-1.8%)	0	66	1.4	0	0	Breakout	99.48(0.18%)	98.55-99.88	2.09	0%-7.1%
4	Nov_18_2008	95.16 (0%)	95.11 (0.2%)	95.3 (0.4%)		(0%)	96.82(1.29%)	95.96-97	-72.2,1.1(1.3)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.12%	-0%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	56	1.2	0	0	Uptrend	96.97(0.16%)	96.55-97.16	0.92	-2.4%-4.4%
5	Nov_17_2008	95.06 (0%)	94.86 (0.2%)	94.94 (0.2%)		(0%)	95.59(0.44%)	95.29-96.03	-74.8,0.3(0.4)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.08%	-0.2%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	50	1.2	0	0	N/A	95.67(0.08%)	95.4-95.88	0.49	-3.6%-3.1%

6	Nov_14_2008	95.01 (0%)	94.59 (0%)	94.76 (0.2%)		(0%)	95.17(1.98%)	94.79-95.46	-73.5,-0(0.1)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0%	-0.5%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	43	1.2	0	0	After Bottom	95.23(0.06%)	95.17-95.27	1.06	-4%-3.2%
7	Nov_13_2008	94.95 (-0%)	94.36 (-0%)	94.58 (-0.3%)		(0%)	93.32(-2.4%)	93.25-95.25	-72.8,-1.2(-1.3)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	-0.6%	N/A	Higher(1%)	0	36	1.2	0	0	Downtrend	93.27(-0.05%)	93.13-93.61	1.63	-5.9%-1.8%
8	Nov_12_2008	95.03 (-0%)	94.45 (-0.2%)	94.58 (0%)		(0%)	95.61(0.64%)	95.16-96.07	-76.5,0.4(0.5)	0	%	0.1%	0%	-0.1%	-0.6%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	38	1.2	0	0	Downtrend	95.45(-0.17%)	95.42-95.52	1.2	-3.6%-4.3%
9	Nov_11_2008	94.99 (-0%)	94.36 (-0.2%)	94.89 (0.1%)		(0%)	95(0.3%)	94.96-95.81	-75.9,0(0)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.14%	-0.7%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	40	1.2	0	0	Downtrend	94.83(-0.18%)	94.75-95	0.7	-4.2%-4.3%
10	Nov_10_2008	94.95 (-0%)	94.38 (-0.2%)	94.78 (0.4%)		(0%)	94.72(0.49%)	93.68-95.1	-75.8,-0.1(-0.2)	0	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.16%	-0.6%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	0	49	1.2	0	0	Downtrend	94.51(-0.22%)	94.41-94.75	1.35	-4.5%-4%

11	Nov_7_2008	94.96 (-0.2%)	94.56 (-0.2%)	94.37 (0.3%)		(0%)	94.26(-0.65%)	93.55-94.52	-74.3,-0.4(-0.6)	0	0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.18%	-0.4%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0.2%)	0	50	1.2	0	0	Downtrend	94.02(-0.25%)	93.88-94.35	1.28	-5%-3.4%
12	Nov_6_2008	95.04 (-0.2%)	94.79 (-0.2%)	94.09 (0.2%)		(0%)	94.88(-0.72%)	93.81-95.05	-72.4,0(-0.1)	0	%	-0.2%	0%	-0.18%	-0.3%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0.2%)	0	55	1.2	0	0	Growing Downtrend	94.64(-0.25%)	94.49-94.88	0.92	-4.3%-5.1%
13	Nov_5_2008	95.12 (-0.2%)	95.05 (-0.2%)	93.92 (0.1%)		(0%)	95.57(1.19%)	94.4-95.67	-67.6,0.4(0.3)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.16%	-0.1%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.1%)	0	55	1.3	0	0	Downtrend	95.25(-0.34%)	95.15-95.47	1.93	-3.6%-5.9%
14	Nov_4_2008	95.2 (-0.2%)	95.17 (-0.2%)	93.79 (-0.2%)		(0%)	94.45(1.88%)	92.59-94.71	-59,-0.4(-0.5)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	-0%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	0	48	1.5	0	0	Growing Downtrend	94.19(-0.28%)	93.98-94.57	1.61	-4.8%-4.6%
15	Nov_3_2008	95.41 (-0.2%)	95.25 (-0%)	93.98 (-0.9%)		(0%)	92.71(-0.13%)	92.35-93.11	-53.4,-1.4(-1.5)	0	-0.2%	-0.3%	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.4%)	0	47	1.7	0	0	Growing Downtrend	92.49(-0.24%)	92.2-93.14	1.11	-6.5%-2.7%

16	Oct_31_2008	95.73 (-0%)	95.48 (0%)	94.8 (-0.8%)		(0%)	92.83(-1.3%)	92.65-94.92	-56.8,-1.6(-1.7)	0	-0.2%	-0.2%	0%	-0.02%	-0.3%	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	44	1.6	0	0	Oversold	93.59(0.82%)	92.75-93.8	2.28	-6.4%-2.8%
17	Oct_30_2008	95.96 (-0%)	95.63 (0%)	95.58 (-0.8%)		(0%)	94.05(-0.91%)	93.8-94.8	-62.5,-1.2(-1.2)	0	-0.2%	-0.1%	0%	0.04%	-0.3%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	43	1.5	0	0	N/A	94.6(0.59%)	94.05-95.06	1.33	-5.2%-4.2%
18	Oct_29_2008	96.1 (0%)	95.71 (0.2%)	96.32 (-0.4%)		(0%)	94.91(-0.5%)	94.43-96.01	-65.5,-0.8(-0.8)	0	-0.1%	-0%	0%	0.1%	-0.4%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	42	1.4	0	0	Uptrend	95.13(0.23%)	95.13-95.13	1.75	-4.3%-5.1%
19	Oct_28_2008	96.15 (0%)	95.74 (0.2%)	96.75 (0.1%)		(0%)	95.39(-1.46%)	95.15-96.9	-65.8,-0.6(-0.5)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.12%	-0.4%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	0	41	1.4	0	0	Uptrend	95.65(0.27%)	95.57-95.68	1.51	-3.8%-5.7%
20	Oct_27_2008	96.13 (0.2%)	95.63 (0%)	96.69 (0.5%)		(0%)	96.8(0.07%)	96.29-98.21	-65.3,0.3(0.5)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.06%	-0.5%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	39	1.5	0	0	N/A	96.89(0.09%)	96.58-97.14	1.53	-2.4%-7.2%

21	Oct_24_2008	96.15 (0.2%)	95.41 (-0.2%)	96.26 (0.6%)		(0%)	96.73(-1.06%)	96.45-99.05	-63.3,0.3(0.4)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.04%	-0.8%	N/A	Higher(0.7%)	0	38	1.5	0	0	N/A	96.62(-0.11%)	96.5-96.73	1.5	-2.5%-7.3%
22	Oct_23_2008	96.04 (0%)	95.31 (-0.2%)	95.69 (0.7%)		(0%)	97.77(0.74%)	96.82-98.89	-60.6,1(1.1)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.12%	-0.8%	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	50	1.6	0	0	N/A	97.26(-0.52%)	96.93-97.53	1.8	-1.4%-8.5%
23	Oct_22_2008	95.85 (0%)	95.16 (-0.2%)	95.04 (0.4%)		(0%)	97.05(2.03%)	95.85-97.49	-60.2,0.7(0.8)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.2%	-0.7%	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	51	1.6	0	0	Downtrend	96.65(-0.41%)	96.57-96.85	1.07	-2.1%-7.7%
24	Oct_21_2008	95.7 (-0%)	95.15 (-0.4%)	94.63 (0.2%)		(0%)	95.12(0.53%)	94.74-95.99	-58.4,-0.2(-0.4)	0	%	-0.2%	0%	-0.22%	-0.6%	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.2%)	0	48	1.6	0	0	Growing Downtrend	94.75(-0.39%)	94.48-95.2	1.24	-4.1%-5.5%
25	Oct_20_2008	95.64 (-0.2%)	95.49 (-0.2%)	94.43 (-0%)		(0%)	94.62(0.8%)	93.36-94.94	-57.2,-0.4(-0.6)	0	%	-0.3%	0%	-0.22%	-0.2%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	0	51	1.7	0	0	Downtrend	94.2(-0.44%)	93.97-94.74	1.15	-4.6%-5%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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