Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SPY: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Apr. 19, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Apr. 23, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $415.2100 (-0.49%) ($413.7900 - $416.7400) on Mon. Apr. 19, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.95% (three month average)
RSI   85
Latest Price   $415.2100(-0.49%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(96%)    IWF(96%)    DIA(94%)    IWD(93%)    QQQ(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.475% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-51%)    UUP(-28%)    VXX(-16%)    TBT(-3%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.475% (StdDev 0.95%)
Hourly BBV -1.2 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

Inflection Point   Yes
5 Day Moving Average   $414.53(0.16%)
10 Day Moving Average   $411.91(0.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $403.9(2.8%)
To recent high   -0.5%
To recent low   12.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.2
One Month Target Price   > $415.21
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $395.49

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.5% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -2.7% away from the target price of 415.21.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 2.36% (three month std-dev: 0.95%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 22 Average positive next day return: 0.59%(55%) Average negative next day return: -0.72%(45%) Sample size 22 Average positive next three day return: 0.93%(55%) Average negative next three day return: -0.58%(45%) Sample size 22 Average positive next weekly return: 1.24%(82%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.96%(18%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210519

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_19_2021	384.64	403.9	411.91	414.53	414.93	416.27	415.21(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	69	30	45	139	77.4	63%	0.14	56.4	0.95%	-1.2	1.2	85	1.3
2	Apr_16_2021	384.11	402.61	411.04	413.82	414.12	415.96	417.26(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	184	30	178	203	81.66	63%	0.09	52.5	0.95%	1.5	1.5	89	1.8
3	Apr_15_2021	383.76	401.29	409.4	412.66	412.65	413.58	415.87(1.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	132	20	114	186	59.99	63%	0.15	50.7	0.96%	1.4	1.6	91	1.8
4	Apr_14_2021	383.2	400.29	407.49	411.19	411.42	412.28	411.45(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	94	20	68	170	61.4	62%	0.13	54.5	0.96%	-0.8	1.3	91	1.4
5	Apr_13_2021	382.69	399.47	405.89	410.22	410.34	411.71	412.86(0.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	133	20	114	191	56.18	62%	0.15	59.6	0.96%	1.9	1.6	87	1.7

6	Apr_12_2021	382.11	398.58	404.19	408.87	408.84	410.56	411.64(0.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	144	30	127	193	56.55	62%	0.16	68.6	0.96%	1.2	1.7	77	1.8
7	Apr_9_2021	381.51	397.64	402.61	407.82	407.58	408.98	411.49(0.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	161	20	147	204	60.87	62%	0.15	78.6	0.96%	1.8	2	80	1.5
8	Apr_8_2021	380.95	396.68	400.44	405.64	406.35	407.11	408.52(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	140	20	127	178	57.53	62%	0.14	92.2	0.96%	1.8	1.9	73	1.5
9	Apr_7_2021	380.4	395.7	398.36	403.2	404.22	406.19	406.59(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	127	40	121	143	55.48	63%	0.13	95.7	0.96%	0.1	2	59	1.4
10	Apr_6_2021	379.92	394.71	396.63	400.83	401.72	405.6	406.12(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	248	70	272	174	61.66	63%	0.12	90.2	0.98%	0.6	2.2	60	1.2

11	Apr_5_2021	379.46	393.49	395.2	398.76	398.78	402.25	406.36(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	277	60	313	167	91.4	63%	0.21	73.7	0.98%	1.4	2.5	60	1.3
12	Apr_1_2021	378.68	392.32	393.42	396.69	396.25	397.85	400.61(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	164	20	187	94	97.15	59%	0.12	61.1	0.98%	1.3	1.5	58	1.3
13	Mar_31_2021	378.22	391.16	392.44	394.5	394.74	395.32	396.33(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	92	10	109	41	112.28	57%	0.12	46.5	0.98%	1.3	0.9	54	1.2
14	Mar_30_2021	377.78	390.43	392.43	392.74	392.57	394.66	394.73(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	55	40	67	19	75.96	57%	0.11	30.3	0.98%	0.6	0.8	58	1.2
15	Mar_29_2021	377.36	390.02	392.49	391.7	391.39	394.17	395.78(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	188	50	223	84	107.6	57%	0.12	25.2	0.98%	1.4	1.1	63	1

16	Mar_26_2021	376.89	389.67	392.47	391.06	390.37	390.48	395.98(1.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	101	-0	116	57	110.83	57%	0.13	22.9	0.98%	1.3	1.1	69	1.4
17	Mar_25_2021	376.41	388.9	392.23	389.76	389.94	388.6	389.7(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-84	-20	-103	-27	113.74	55%	0.13	9.1	0.97%	-0.1	0.1	61	1.1
18	Mar_24_2021	375.93	388.56	392.63	390.11	390.44	390.27	387.52(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-66	-0	-90	6	96.73	55%	0.14	4.2	0.97%	-2.3	-0.2	67	1
19	Mar_23_2021	375.4	388.77	392.93	392.06	391.36	391.27	389.5(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	10	-10	-10	68	90.18	55%	0.17	13.9	0.97%	-1.5	0.1	61	1.1
20	Mar_22_2021	374.78	388.67	392.8	393.34	392.59	390.6	392.59(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-51	-40	-86	53	73.29	55%	0.18	16	0.96%	0.4	0.7	57	1.9

21	Mar_19_2021	374.09	388.37	391.82	394.11	393.79	391.45	389.48(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-159	-40	-212	1	112.56	55%	0.17	16.1	0.95%	-0.9	0.2	50	1.6
22	Mar_18_2021	373.47	388.39	391.34	395.02	395.13	394.59	391.48(-1.45%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-42	-10	-79	68	113.91	55%	0.18	20.3	0.96%	-2.3	0.6	61	1.2
23	Mar_17_2021	372.79	388.32	390	395.43	395.01	396.14	397.26(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	70	20	53	121	95.61	58%	0.16	22.9	0.94%	1.3	1.6	64	2.1
24	Mar_16_2021	372.18	388	388.4	393.9	394.38	395.68	395.91(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	151	30	157	134	73.32	58%	0.16	17.5	0.95%	0.9	1.5	52	1.9
25	Mar_15_2021	371.59	387.76	387.38	392.15	392.69	393.89	396.41(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	123	30	128	107	73.2	60%		10.5	0.94%	1.4	1.7	56	2.4
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.