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     Tue. Oct. 14, 2014



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Dec. 3, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $187.7000 (0.15%) ($187.0400 - $189.8200) on Tue. Oct. 14, 2014.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Growing Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY declines -0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY declines -1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY decline at-0.6% a week (95% probability)
  VT(97%)    XLK(94%)    XLY(93%)    QQQ(92%)    IWM(89%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will decline at least -0.6% in a week (37% probabilities).
  VIXM(-51%)    TLT(-41%)    SHY(-14%)    UUP(-13%)    TIP(-12%)  
Explanation   The decline is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   2.4 (options are extremely expensive)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  5%
Bullish Price Move  0.7%
Bearish Probability  95%
Bearish Price Move  -0.7%
Recommended Position Size  -129%
Latest Price  $187.7000
Next Hour Price  $187.7(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $185.94(-0.94%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $184.28 - $189.12
Resistance Level  $195.7
5 Day Moving Average  $191.01(-1.73%)
10 Day Moving Average  $192.82(-2.66%)
20 Day Moving Average  $195.7(-4.09%)
To recent high  -7%
To recent low  0.2%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  63%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
 


  
 
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bearish (1.9)
Risk Appetite  Risk Off (-26)
Fed Balance Sheet  4.455 T (Wed. Oct. 8, 2014) No Change
Fed Fund Rate  0.09% (Tue. Oct. 14, 2014) No Change
Yield Curve  Worsening (-2)
Credit Spread  Worsening (-50)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 2.02% (three month std-dev: 0.74%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20141114

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Oct_14_2014-7%-0.2-1.2%,-0.6(-0.1)-1.7%,-0.9(-0.1)-0.6%,-0.300%-1.5%-2002.7NAN%0215.85   187.7(0.15%)187.04-189.82Growing Downtrend 185.94(-0.94%)184.28-189.1228
2Oct_13_2014-7.1%-0-1%,-0.6(-0.1)-1.5%,-0.8(-0.2)-0.9%,-0.500%-1.3%-2.6002.4NAN%0230.94   187.41(-1.64%)187.3-191.15Growing Downtrend 186.14(-0.68%)184.73-189.0832
3Oct_10_2014-5.6%-0-0.8%,-0.5(-0.1)-1.1%,-0.8(-0.1)-0.6%,-0.400%-1.1%-2.2002NAN%0221.91   190.54(-1.14%)190.49-193.65Growing Downtrend 189.7(-0.44%)188.74-191.7234
4Oct_9_2014-4.5%-0.9% -0.7%,-0.5(-0)-0.9%,-0.7(0.1)-0.2%,-0.100%-0.9%-1.9001.8NAN%0210.7   192.74(-1.98%)192.58-196.6Downtrend 192.16(-0.3%)191.51-193.6634
5Oct_8_2014-2.6%-2.9% -0.6%,-0.5(0.1)-1.1%,-0.9(0.2)0.2%,0.200%-0.9%-0.5001.7NAN%0186.46   196.64(1.75%)192.36-196.92Downtrend 195.91(-0.37%)195.5-196.8737
 
6Oct_7_2014-4.2%-1.2% -0.7%,-0.6(-0.1)-1.3%,-1.1(-0.1)-0.4%,-0.300%-0.9%-2.1001.8NAN%0147.91   193.26(-1.54%)193.22-195.72Downtrend 192.35(-0.47%)191.58-194.1532
7Oct_6_2014-2.7%-2.8% -0.6%,-0.6(-0)-1.2%,-1.2(-0)-0.1%,-0.100%-0.8%-1001.7NAN%0104.78   196.29(-0.12%)195.58-197.6Downtrend 195.49(-0.41%)194.96-196.738
8Oct_3_2014-2.6%-2.9% -0.6%,-0.6(-0)-1.2%,-1.1(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.100%-0.8%-1001.7NAN%0121.57   196.52(1.1%)195.08-196.94Growing Downtrend 195.81(-0.36%)195.19-196.9344
9Oct_2_2014-3.7%-1.8% -0.6%,-0.5(-0)-1%,-1(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.7%-2.2001.7NAN%0157.29   194.38(0.02%)192.35-195.06Growing Downtrend 193.84(-0.28%)193.19-195.2237
10Oct_1_2014-3.7%-1.7% -0.5%,-0.6(-0.2)-0.9%,-1(-0.3)-0.5%,-0.600%-0.5%-2.7001.5NAN%0177.8   194.35(-1.36%)193.91-196.77Growing Downtrend 193.9(-0.23%)193.31-195.2634
 
11Sep_30_2014-2.4%-3.1% -0.4%,-0.5(-0)-0.6%,-0.8(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.100%-0.3%-1.7001.2NAN%0131.3   197.02(-0.26%)196.61-198.3Growing Downtrend 196.82(-0.1%)196.53-197.4841
12Sep_29_2014-2.1%-3.4% -0.3%,-0.5(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.7(0)-0.2%,-0.200%-0.2%-1.5001.1NAN%095.11   197.54(-0.18%)196.05-197.89Downtrend 197.38(-0.08%)197.15-197.9345
13Sep_26_2014-1.9%-3.6% -0.3%,-0.4(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.7(-0.1)-0.3%,-0.400%-0.2%-1.5001.1NAN%0103.55   197.9(0.79%)196.42-198.39Downtrend 197.74(-0.08%)197.53-198.2742
14Sep_25_2014-2.7%-2.8% -0.2%,-0.3(-0.3)-0.4%,-0.7(-0.5)-0.6%,-0.900%-0.2%-3001NAN%0150.3   196.34(-1.61%)196.27-199.05Growing Downtrend 196.26(-0.04%)195.99-197.0135
15Sep_24_2014-1.1%-4.5% 0%,0(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.3(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.300%-0.1%-0.6000.8NAN%0107.28   199.56(0.78%)197.52-199.69Correction 199.14(-0.21%)199.05-199.5248
 
16Sep_23_2014-1.9%-3.7% 0.1%,0.2(-0.3)-0.1%,-0.1(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.600%-0.1%-2.5000.8NAN%0111.39   198.01(-0.57%)197.95-199.26Correction 197.59(-0.21%)197.51-197.9741
17Sep_22_2014-1.3%-4.3% 0.2%,0.7(-0.2)0%,0.1(0.1)0%,000%-0.1%-1.6000.6NAN%0125.55   199.15(-0.77%)198.73-200.38N/A 199.57(0.21%)199.25-199.8144
18Sep_19_2014-0.6%-5.1% 0.3%,0.9(-0.1)0%,0(0.1)0.2%,0.500%-0%0.6000.7NAN%0121.65   200.7(-0.55%)200.29-201.9N/A 200.66(-0.02%)200.5-200.849
19Sep_18_20140%-5.6% 0.4%,1(-0.1)-0%,-0.1(0.3)0.2%,0.400%0%2.3000.7NAN%094.99   201.82(0.53%)201.1-201.85Breakout 201.78(-0.02%)201.51-201.8958
20Sep_17_2014-0.2%-5.1% 0.4%,1.3(-0.3)-0.1%,-0.4(0.1)0.1%,0.200%0%1.1000.6NAN%0151.27   200.75(0.13%)199.75-201.68N/A 200.59(-0.08%)200.32-200.853
 
21Sep_16_2014-0.3%-4.9% 0.5%,1.4(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.4(0.1)0.1%,0.300%0%0.7000.7NAN%0116.2   200.48(0.75%)198.5-200.84Growing Uptrend 200.52(0.02%)200.39-200.5551
22Sep_15_2014-1.1%-4.2% 0.6%,1.2(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.5(-0.3)-0.2%,-0.400%0.1%-0.9000.9NAN%076.4   198.98(-0.08%)198.38-199.32Correction 198.7(-0.14%)198.62-199.0242
23Sep_12_2014-1%-4.2% 0.7%,1(-0.3)-0.1%,-0.1(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.300%0.3%-0.4001.2NAN%0117.48   199.13(-0.58%)198.56-200.12Correction 198.97(-0.08%)198.88-199.3252
24Sep_11_2014-0.4%-4.9% 0.8%,1.1(-0.1)0.1%,0.1(-0.1)0%,000%0.4%0.5001.5NAN%066.82   200.3(0.11%)199.12-200.33Uptrend 200.58(0.14%)200.15-200.7557
25Sep_10_2014-0.5%-4.7% 0.9%,1(-0.1)0.1%,0.2(-0.1)-0%,-000%0.5%0.4001.7NAN%067.25   200.07(0.38%)198.77-200.2Uptrend 200.41(0.17%)199.93-200.6161
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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