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     Tue. Dec. 31, 2013



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Mon. Nov. 30, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $184.6900 (0.47%) ($183.9300 - $184.6900) on Tue. Dec. 31, 2013.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Growing Uptrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0.8% a week (94% probability)
  XLK(93%)    XLY(93%)    QQQ(92%)    IWM(89%)    VGK(84%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least 0.5% in a week (25% probabilities).
  TLT(-40%)    SHY(-14%)    TIP(-13%)    IGOV(-13%)    ROBT(-7%)  
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   2.1 (options are extremely expensive)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  94%
Bullish Price Move  0.7%
Bearish Probability  6%
Bearish Price Move  -0.7%
Recommended Position Size  126%
Latest Price  $184.6900
Next Hour Price  $184.69(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $185.63(0.51%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $184.01 - $186.04
Support Level  $181.14
5 Day Moving Average  $183.83(0.47%)
10 Day Moving Average  $182.61(1.14%)
20 Day Moving Average  $181.14(1.96%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  11.6%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  72%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
Average Volume  107.91 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  0
One Month Target Price  > $184.69
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $178.69
 


  
 
Risk Appetite  Risk On (16)
Fed Balance Sheet  4.033 T (Wed. Dec. 25, 2013) Expansion
Fed Fund Rate  0.07% (Tue. Dec. 31, 2013) Move Down
Yield Curve  Improving (12)
Credit Spread  Improving (10)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -5.1% away from the target price of 184.69.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.13% (three month std-dev: 0.65%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20140131

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Dec_31_20130%-11.6% 0.5%,0.4(0.1)1.4%,1.2(0.2)0.2%,0.200%0.8%1.7001.7NAN%086.25   184.69(0.47%)183.93-184.69Growing Uptrend 185.63(0.51%)184.01-186.0465
2Dec_30_2013-0%-11.1% 0.4%,0.4(0)1.2%,1.1(0.3)0.3%,0.200%0.6%1.6001.6NAN%056.86   183.82(-0.02%)183.58-184.02Growing Uptrend 184.54(0.39%)183.25-184.8659
3Dec_27_2013-0%-11.1% 0.4%,0.4(0)0.9%,0.9(0.2)0.3%,0.300%0.4%1.8001.5NAN%061.81   183.85(-0.01%)183.66-184.18Growing Uptrend 184.36(0.28%)183.23-184.6461
4Dec_26_20130%-11.1% 0.4%,0.4(0)0.7%,0.8(0.2)0.2%,0.300%0.2%2001.4NAN%063.37   183.86(0.51%)183.32-183.96Breakout 184.12(0.14%)183.2-184.5267
5Dec_24_20130%-10.5% 0.3%,0.4(0.1)0.6%,0.7(0.3)0.5%,0.600%0%1.8001.2NAN%045.37   182.93(0.22%)182.53-183.01Uptrend 183.13(0.11%)182.44-183.4261
 
6Dec_23_20130%-10.3% 0.2%,0.3(0.1)0.3%,0.5(0.2)0.4%,0.500%-0.1%1.8001.1NAN%085.6   182.53(0.53%)182.07-182.64Uptrend 182.62(0.05%)182.08-182.8560
7Dec_20_2013-0.1%-9.7% 0.2%,0.3(0.1)0.2%,0.3(0.3)0.4%,0.600%-0.1%1.2001NAN%0197.09   181.56(0.04%)180.57-181.99Uptrend 181.6(0.02%)181.3-181.7353
8Dec_19_2013-0.1%-9.7% 0.1%,0.1(0.2)-0%,-0(0.5)0.4%,0.600%-0.1%1.3000.9NAN%0136.3   181.49(-0.12%)180.71-181.7N/A 181.16(-0.18%)180.65-181.5750
9Dec_18_20130%-9.8% -0%,-0(0.1)-0.4%,-0.6(0.4)0.3%,0.500%-0.2%1.6000.9NAN%0234.91   181.7(1.71%)177.32-181.73Downtrend Consolidation 181.48(-0.12%)181.02-181.6250
10Dec_17_2013-1.5%-8% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.2)-0.6%,-1(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.400%-0.2%-1.1000.9NAN%089.89   178.65(-0.32%)178.25-179.41Growing Downtrend 178.54(-0.06%)178.39-178.8640
 
11Dec_16_2013-1.2%-8.3% 0%,0.1(-0.2)-0.5%,-0.9(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.400%-0.2%-0.6000.9NAN%096.19   179.22(0.62%)178.9-179.81Correction 178.43(-0.44%)178.3-179.0143
12Dec_13_2013-1.8%-7.6% 0.2%,0.3(-0.4)-0.4%,-0.7(-0.4)-0.3%,-0.600%-0.1%-1.8000.9NAN%0107.81   178.11(-0.01%)177.77-178.66Correction 177.43(-0.38%)177.3-177.9635
13Dec_12_2013-1.8%-7.6% 0.4%,0.7(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.3(-0.3)-0.1%,-0.200%-0%-1.9000.8NAN%0115.56   178.13(-0.33%)177.76-178.86Correction 177.76(-0.21%)177.66-178.1343
14Dec_11_2013-1.5%-8% 0.4%,0.8(-0.1)0%,0(-0.3)-0.1%,-0.200%0.2%-1.4000.8NAN%0130.59   178.72(-1.12%)178.5-180.85N/A 179.2(0.27%)178.86-179.4854
15Dec_10_2013-0.4%-9.2% 0.5%,0.8(0)0.1%,0.2(-0)0.1%,0.200%0.3%0.7001NAN%080.98   180.75(-0.36%)180.64-181.36Uptrend 180.86(0.06%)180.61-180.9761
 
16Dec_9_20130%-9.6% 0.5%,0.7(-0)0.2%,0.2(0)0.1%,0.100%0.4%1.3001.1NAN%070.12   181.4(0.25%)181.16-181.67Uptrend 181.47(0.04%)181.09-181.6561
17Dec_6_2013-0.1%-9.3% 0.5%,0.7(0)0.1%,0.2(-0.1)-0%,-000%0.5%1.1001.1NAN%0127.73   180.94(1.12%)180.15-181.11Uptrend 180.99(0.03%)180.65-181.1354
18Dec_5_2013-1.2%-8.1% 0.5%,0.5(-0.1)0.2%,0.2(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.300%0.6%-0.2001.4NAN%0106.93   178.94(-0.44%)178.77-179.74Uptrend 179.12(0.1%)178.98-179.1850
19Dec_4_2013-0.8%-8.6% 0.6%,0.6(-0)0.3%,0.4(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.100%0.6%0.3001.4NAN%0123.03   179.73(-0.01%)178.35-180.48Uptrend 179.98(0.14%)179.61-180.1461
20Dec_3_2013-0.8%-9.3% 0.6%,0.6(-0.1)0.5%,0.5(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.100%0.7%0.4001.5NAN%0116.56   179.75(-0.43%)179.17-180.39Uptrend 180.07(0.18%)179.62-180.2768
 
21Dec_2_2013-0.3%-9.8% 0.6%,0.6(-0)0.7%,0.7(-0.2)-0%,-000%0.7%0.9001.6NAN%099.73   180.53(-0.26%)180.25-181.43Uptrend 180.95(0.23%)180.22-181.2570
22Nov_29_2013-0.1%-10.6% 0.7%,0.6(0)0.8%,0.8(-0.2)0.1%,0.100%0.8%1.3001.6NAN%055.87   181(-0.07%)180.8-181.75Uptrend 181.51(0.28%)180.54-181.9273
23Nov_27_20130%-10.9% 0.7%,0.6(0)1%,1(0.1)0.3%,0.300%0.9%1.5001.6NAN%058.8   181.12(0.24%)180.65-181.24Uptrend 181.74(0.34%)180.56-182.2481
24Nov_26_2013-0.1%-10.6% 0.6%,0.6(0)0.9%,0.9(0)0.2%,0.200%0.8%1.4001.4NAN%086.99   180.68(0.03%)180.41-181.22Uptrend 181.15(0.26%)180.2-181.5664
25Nov_25_2013-0.1%-10.6% 0.6%,0.7(-0)0.9%,0.9(0)0.1%,0.100%0.8%1.6001.4NAN%079.49   180.63(-0.1%)180.37-181.17Uptrend 181.06(0.24%)180.08-181.4866
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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