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     Thu. Aug. 29, 2013



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Dec. 2, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $164.1700 (0.16%) ($163.4000 - $165.0400) on Thu. Aug. 29, 2013.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY declines -0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY declines -1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY decline at-0.5% a week (94% probability)
  XLK(93%)    XLY(93%)    QQQ(92%)    IWM(89%)    VGK(84%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least 0.2% in a week (24% probabilities).
  TLT(-39%)    SHY(-13%)    TIP(-11%)    IGOV(-11%)    XLC(-8%)  
Explanation   The decline is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   1.3 (options are expensive)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  45%
Bullish Price Move  0.8%
Bearish Probability  55%
Bearish Price Move  -0.8%
Recommended Position Size  -13%
Latest Price  $164.1700
Next Hour Price  $164.17(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $163.48(-0.42%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $161.19(-1.82%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $162.96 - $164.71
Resistance Level  $167.08
5 Day Moving Average  $164.81(-0.39%)
10 Day Moving Average  $165.05(-0.53%)
20 Day Moving Average  $167.08(-1.74%)
To recent high  -4%
To recent low  4.5%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  72%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
 


  
 
Risk Appetite  Risk On (15)
Fed Balance Sheet  3.644 T (Wed. Aug. 28, 2013) No Change
Fed Fund Rate  0.08% (Thu. Aug. 29, 2013) Move Up
Yield Curve  Improving (9)
Credit Spread  Improving (2)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.47% (three month std-dev: 0.78%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20130929

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Aug_29_2013-4%-4.5% -0.7%,-0.5(-0.1)-1.1%,-0.7(0.1)-0.2%,-0.100%-1.2%-1.2001.9NAN%0119.2   164.17(0.16%)163.4-165.04Downtrend 163.48(-0.42%)162.96-164.7131
2Aug_28_2013-4.1%-4.4% -0.6%,-0.4(-0)-1.2%,-0.8(0)-0.1%,-0.100%-1.3%-1.5001.8NAN%0108.11   163.91(0.36%)163.05-164.49Downtrend 163.3(-0.37%)162.75-164.6128
3Aug_27_2013-4.5%-4% -0.6%,-0.4(-0)-1.2%,-0.9(-0.1)-0.3%,-0.200%-1.1%-2001.7NAN%0158.62   163.33(-1.61%)163.21-166Downtrend 162.84(-0.3%)162.25-164.229
4Aug_26_2013-2.9%-5.7% -0.5%,-0.4(0.1)-1.1%,-0.9(0.2)0.1%,0.100%-0.9%-1001.5NAN%089.71   166(-0.37%)165.89-167.3Downtrend 165.57(-0.26%)165.21-166.3933
5Aug_23_2013-2.5%-6.1% -0.6%,-0.5(0)-1.3%,-1.1(0.1)0.1%,0.100%-0.9%-0.8001.5NAN%090.89   166.62(0.34%)165.77-166.83Downtrend 166.05(-0.34%)165.66-166.9632
 
6Aug_22_2013-2.9%-5.7% -0.6%,-0.5(-0)-1.4%,-1.2(0)-0%,-000%-0.8%-1.1001.5NAN%0101.47   166.06(0.91%)164.89-166.3Downtrend 165.4(-0.4%)164.92-166.4928
7Aug_21_2013-3.7%-4.8% -0.6%,-0.5(-0.1)-1.5%,-1.3(-0.2)-0.5%,-0.500%-0.7%-2.1001.4NAN%0159.53   164.56(-0.62%)164.19-166.03Growing Downtrend 164(-0.34%)163.38-165.2822
8Aug_20_2013-3.1%-5.4% -0.4%,-0.5(-0.2)-1.2%,-1.2(-0.3)-0.5%,-0.500%-0.5%-1.8001.3NAN%089.29   165.58(0.49%)164.86-166.2Growing Downtrend 165.17(-0.25%)164.7-166.1439
9Aug_19_2013-3.6%-4.9% -0.3%,-0.3(-0.2)-0.9%,-1(-0.4)-0.5%,-0.600%-0.4%-2.7001.2NAN%096.44   164.77(-0.64%)164.76-166.21Growing Downtrend 164.57(-0.12%)164.19-165.5336
10Aug_16_2013-3%-5.6% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.2)-0.5%,-0.7(-0.5)-0.4%,-0.600%-0.2%-2.7000.9NAN%0130.87   165.83(-0.33%)165.5-166.63Growing Downtrend 165.78(-0.03%)165.54-166.4439
 
11Aug_15_2013-2.7%-5.9% 0.1%,0.1(-0.3)-0.2%,-0.4(-0.6)-0.4%,-0.700%0%-3000.7NAN%0152.93   166.38(-1.4%)166.09-167.43Correction 165.85(-0.32%)165.74-166.2939
12Aug_14_2013-1.3%-7.4% 0.2%,0.5(-0.2)0.1%,0.3(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.100%0.2%-0.8000.6NAN%079.83   168.74(-0.51%)168.7-169.8Uptrend 168.82(0.05%)168.85-168.8150
13Aug_13_2013-0.8%-8% 0.3%,0.6(-0.1)0.2%,0.3(0)-0%,-000%0.3%0.3000.7NAN%080.81   169.61(0.3%)168.41-169.9Uptrend 169.66(0.03%)169.57-169.6959
14Aug_12_2013-1.1%-7.7% 0.4%,0.8(-0.3)0.1%,0.3(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.400%0.3%-0.1000.7NAN%068.59   169.11(-0.12%)168.38-169.31Uptrend 169.18(0.04%)169.13-169.1951
15Aug_9_2013-1%-7.8% 0.6%,1(-0.3)0.2%,0.4(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.400%0.3%0.1000.7NAN%091.86   169.31(-0.29%)168.72-170.1Uptrend Consolidation 169.29(-0.01%)169.26-169.449
 
16Aug_8_2013-0.7%-8.1% 0.7%,1.3(-0.3)0.3%,0.5(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.200%0.3%0.7000.8NAN%0102.18   169.8(0.37%)168.93-170.18Uptrend 169.94(0.08%)169.65-170.0555
17Aug_7_2013-1%-7.7% 0.9%,1.3(-0.1)0.4%,0.5(-0)0.1%,0.100%0.3%0.2001NAN%084.85   169.18(-0.32%)168.55-169.43Uptrend 169.42(0.14%)169.12-169.5653
18Aug_6_2013-0.7%-8.1% 1%,1.2(-0.1)0.4%,0.4(-0)0.1%,0.200%0.4%0.6001.2NAN%087.49   169.73(-0.57%)169.35-170.74Uptrend 170.04(0.18%)169.55-170.2564
19Aug_5_2013-0.1%-8.7% 1.1%,1.1(-0)0.4%,0.4(0.1)0.3%,0.200%0.5%1.2001.4NAN%054.07   170.7(-0.15%)170.35-170.96Uptrend 171.08(0.22%)170.3-171.474
20Aug_2_20130%-8.8% 1.2%,1(-0)0.4%,0.3(0)0.2%,0.200%0.6%1.3001.6NAN%091.12   170.95(0.17%)170.05-170.97Uptrend 171.29(0.2%)170.44-171.6669
 
21Aug_1_20130%-8.7% 1.2%,1(0)0.3%,0.3(0)0.2%,0.200%0.7%1.4001.5NAN%0110.44   170.66(1.16%)169.9-170.81Uptrend 170.98(0.19%)170.12-171.3471
22Jul_31_2013-0.5%-7.4% 1.2%,0.8(-0.1)0.3%,0.2(-0.1)0%,000%0.9%0.6001.8NAN%0142.39   168.71(0.07%)168.49-169.85Uptrend 169.18(0.28%)168.42-169.5163
23Jul_30_2013-0.5%-7.3% 1.2%,0.8(-0.1)0.4%,0.3(-0.1)-0.1%,-000%1.1%0.6002NAN%085.22   168.59(0%)168.19-169.28Uptrend 169.13(0.32%)168.26-169.5175
24Jul_29_2013-0.5%-7.3% 1.4%,0.8(-0.1)0.6%,0.4(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.100%1.2%0.7002.2NAN%079.85   168.59(-0.31%)168.11-169.06Uptrend 169.37(0.46%)168.16-169.8875
25Jul_26_2013-0.2%-7.7% 1.5%,0.8(-0)0.9%,0.5(-0.1)-0%,-000%1.4%0.9002.4NAN%0107.81   169.11(0.11%)167.52-169.16Uptrend 170.26(0.68%)168.56-17183
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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