Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 22, 2013

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jan. 15, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $166.0600 (0.91%) ($164.8900 - $166.3000) on Thu. Aug. 22, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Downtrend
Trend Narrative   After Bottom
Average Daily Price Swing   $1.92 (1.14% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.76% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   -0.2% (StdDev 0.76%)
Daily Moving Force   %
Rebound Strength   None(0%)
Trend   -0.24%
Latest Price   $166.0600(0.91%)
Forecasted Low Price   165.4(-0.4%)
Forecasted High Price   166.39(0.2%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(-0.2%)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   0.9%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (93% probability)
XLK(93%)    XLY(93%)    QQQ(92%)    IWM(88%)    VGK(84%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will advance at least -0% in a week (25% probabilities).
TLT(-39%)    SHY(-13%)    TIP(-11%)    IGOV(-11%)    DRIV(-5%)
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0

Relative Volatility -0 (options are faily valued)

Market Trend Strength   -0.2% (StdDev 0.76%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

Next Hour Price   $166.06(0%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $162.89(-1.91%)
Resistance Level   $168.21
5 Day Moving Average   $165.36(0.42%)
10 Day Moving Average   $166.89(-0.5%)
20 Day Moving Average   $168.21(-1.28%)
To recent high   -2.9%
To recent low   5.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

Advance Ratio   87%
Stage of the Market   Normal

Risk Appetite    (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Balance Sheet   3.646 T (Wed. Aug. 21, 2013) No Change
Fed Fund Rate   0.09% (Thu. Aug. 22, 2013) Move Up
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.14% (three month std-dev: 0.76% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130922

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Aug_22_2013	168.21 (-0.5%)	166.89 (-1.2%)	165.36 (-0%)		(0%)	166.06(0.91%)	164.89-166.3	-0.9(-1.1)	0	%	-0.2%	0%	-0.24%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	0	28	1.5	0	0	After Bottom	165.84(-0.13%)	164.35-167.06	101.47	-2.9%-5.7%
2	Aug_21_2013	168.36 (-0.5%)	167.25 (-1.3%)	165.42 (-0.5%)		(0%)	164.56(-0.62%)	164.19-166.03	-1.9(-2.1)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.24%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0%)	0	22	1.4	0	0	Growing Downtrend	163.98(-0.35%)	163.38-165.24	159.53	-3.7%-4.8%
3	Aug_20_2013	168.58 (-0.5%)	167.73 (-1.2%)	166.26 (-0.5%)		(0%)	165.58(0.49%)	164.86-166.2	-1.6(-1.8)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.2%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	0	39	1.3	0	0	Growing Downtrend	165.15(-0.26%)	164.7-166.06	89.29	-3.1%-5.4%
4	Aug_19_2013	168.77 (-0.3%)	168.15 (-1%)	167.07 (-0.5%)		(0%)	164.77(-0.64%)	164.76-166.21	-2.3(-2.7)	0	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.5%	-0.14%	Growing Downtrend	Higher(0.4%)	0	36	1.2	0	0	Growing Downtrend	164.56(-0.13%)	164.19-165.42	96.44	-3.6%-4.9%
5	Aug_16_2013	169.03 (-0.1%)	168.76 (-0.7%)	167.93 (-0.4%)		(0%)	165.83(-0.33%)	165.5-166.63	-2.3(-2.7)	0	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.4%	-0.08%	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.2%)	0	39	0.9	0	0	Growing Downtrend	165.76(-0.04%)	165.54-166.35	130.87	-3%-5.6%

6	Aug_15_2013	169.21 (0.1%)	169.29 (-0.4%)	168.63 (-0.4%)		(0%)	166.38(-1.4%)	166.09-167.43	-2.7(-3)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.8%	-0.02%	Oversold	Higher(1.2%)	0	39	0.7	0	0	Correction	165.85(-0.32%)	165.74-166.29	152.93	-2.7%-5.9%
7	Aug_14_2013	169.36 (0.5%)	169.74 (0.3%)	169.31 (-0.1%)		(0%)	168.74(-0.51%)	168.7-169.8	-0.8(-0.8)	0	%	-0%	0%	0.02%	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	50	0.6	0	0	Uptrend	168.82(0.05%)	168.85-168.81	79.83	-1.3%-7.4%
8	Aug_13_2013	169.33 (0.6%)	169.76 (0.3%)	169.4 (-0%)		(0%)	169.61(0.3%)	168.41-169.9	0.1(0.3)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.04%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	59	0.7	0	0	Uptrend	169.66(0.03%)	169.59-169.69	80.81	-0.8%-8%
9	Aug_12_2013	169.23 (0.8%)	169.67 (0.3%)	169.43 (-0.2%)		(0%)	169.11(-0.12%)	168.38-169.31	-0.1(-0.1)	0	%	0%	0%	0.04%	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	51	0.7	0	0	Uptrend	169.18(0.04%)	169.13-169.19	68.59	-1.1%-7.7%
10	Aug_9_2013	169.19 (1%)	169.64 (0.4%)	169.74 (-0.2%)		(0%)	169.31(-0.29%)	168.72-170.1	0.1(0.1)	0	%	0%	0%	0.06%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	49	0.7	0	0	Uptrend Consolidation	169.29(-0.01%)	169.26-169.4	91.86	-1%-7.8%

11	Aug_8_2013	169.11 (1.3%)	169.63 (0.5%)	170.07 (-0.1%)		(0%)	169.8(0.37%)	168.93-170.18	0.5(0.7)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.08%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	55	0.8	0	0	Uptrend	169.94(0.08%)	169.7-170.05	102.18	-0.7%-8.1%
12	Aug_7_2013	168.99 (1.3%)	169.54 (0.5%)	170.24 (0.1%)		(0%)	169.18(-0.32%)	168.55-169.43	0(0.2)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.1%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	53	1	0	0	Uptrend	169.45(0.16%)	169.18-169.56	84.85	-1%-7.7%
13	Aug_6_2013	168.81 (1.2%)	169.49 (0.4%)	170.15 (0.1%)		(0%)	169.73(-0.57%)	169.35-170.74	0.5(0.6)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.12%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.4%)	0	64	1.2	0	0	Uptrend	170.05(0.19%)	169.58-170.25	87.49	-0.7%-8.1%
14	Aug_5_2013	168.6 (1.1%)	169.43 (0.4%)	169.92 (0.3%)		(0%)	170.7(-0.15%)	170.35-170.96	1.1(1.2)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.12%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	74	1.4	0	0	Uptrend	171.09(0.23%)	170.35-171.4	54.07	-0.1%-8.7%
15	Aug_2_2013	168.27 (1%)	169.3 (0.3%)	169.5 (0.2%)		(0%)	170.95(0.17%)	170.05-170.97	1.2(1.3)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.12%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	69	1.6	0	0	Uptrend	171.31(0.21%)	170.5-171.66	91.12	0%-8.8%

16	Aug_1_2013	167.89 (1%)	169.1 (0.3%)	169.13 (0.2%)		(0%)	170.66(1.16%)	169.9-170.81	1.3(1.4)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.12%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	71	1.5	0	0	Uptrend	170.98(0.19%)	170.17-171.34	110.44	0%-8.7%
17	Jul_31_2013	167.43 (0.8%)	168.9 (0.2%)	168.79 (0%)		(0%)	168.71(0.07%)	168.49-169.85	0.5(0.6)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.1%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.1%)	0	63	1.8	0	0	Uptrend	169.2(0.29%)	168.48-169.51	142.39	-0.5%-7.4%
18	Jul_30_2013	167.08 (0.8%)	168.84 (0.3%)	168.75 (-0.1%)		(0%)	168.59(0%)	168.19-169.28	0.5(0.6)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.14%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	75	2	0	0	Uptrend	169.15(0.33%)	168.33-169.51	85.22	-0.5%-7.3%
19	Jul_29_2013	166.74 (0.8%)	168.75 (0.4%)	168.86 (-0.1%)		(0%)	168.59(-0.31%)	168.11-169.06	0.6(0.7)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.16%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.3%)	0	75	2.2	0	0	Uptrend	169.38(0.47%)	168.23-169.88	79.85	-0.5%-7.3%
20	Jul_26_2013	166.35 (0.8%)	168.71 (0.5%)	169.04 (-0%)		(0%)	169.11(0.11%)	167.52-169.16	0.8(0.9)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.22%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	83	2.4	0	0	Uptrend	170.29(0.7%)	168.64-171	107.81	-0.2%-7.7%

21	Jul_25_2013	165.96 (0.8%)	168.56 (0.6%)	169.05 (0%)		(0%)	168.93(0.24%)	167.94-169.08	0.9(0.9)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.26%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.1%)	0	84	2.5	0	0	Uptrend	170.37(0.85%)	168.36-171.22	111.16	-0.3%-7.6%
22	Jul_24_2013	165.53 (0.7%)	168.42 (0.8%)	169.04 (0.1%)		(0%)	168.52(-0.37%)	168.18-169.86	0.8(0.9)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.3%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.4%)	0	87	2.6	0	0	Uptrend	170.27(1.04%)	168.01-171.25	112.91	-0.6%-7.3%
23	Jul_23_2013	165.05 (0.6%)	168.11 (0.8%)	168.93 (0.2%)		(0%)	169.14(-0.21%)	169.05-169.83	1(1.1)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.32%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.4%)	0	91	2.8	0	0	Uptrend	171.1(1.16%)	168.41-172.25	80.83	-0.2%-7.7%
24	Jul_22_2013	164.46 (0.4%)	167.73 (0.8%)	168.6 (0.2%)		(0%)	169.5(0.2%)	169.01-169.74	1.2(1.3)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.32%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	92	3	0	0	Uptrend	171.57(1.22%)	168.62-172.83	79.43	0%-8.5%
25	Jul_19_2013	163.94 (0.4%)	167.19 (0.9%)	168.34 (0.2%)		(0%)	169.17(0.18%)	168.31-169.23	1.3(1.4)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.34%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	93	2.9	0	0	Uptrend	171.18(1.19%)	168.2-172.47	103.83	0%-8.8%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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