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     Thu. Feb. 2, 2012



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Mon. Nov. 30, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $132.6800 (0.16%) ($132.2100 - $133.0200) on Thu. Feb. 2, 2012.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Uptrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0.9% a week (94% probability)
  XLK(93%)    XLY(93%)    QQQ(92%)    IWM(89%)    VGK(83%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will decline at least -0.2% in a week (27% probabilities).
  TLT(-42%)    SHY(-14%)    TIP(-13%)    VXX(-8%)    IDRV(-7%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   -1.5 (options are cheap)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  60%
Bullish Price Move  1.3%
Bearish Probability  40%
Bearish Price Move  -1.3%
Recommended Position Size  15%
Latest Price  $132.6800
Next Hour Price  $132.68(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $132.84(0.12%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $134.08(1.06%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $132.28 - $133.08
Support Level  $130.63
5 Day Moving Average  $131.93(0.57%)
10 Day Moving Average  $131.88(0.61%)
20 Day Moving Average  $130.63(1.57%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  14%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  47%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
Average Volume  148.64 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  0
One Month Target Price  > $132.68
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $124.32
 


  
 
Risk Appetite  Risk On (26)
Fed Balance Sheet  2.925 T (Wed. Feb. 1, 2012) No Change
Fed Fund Rate  0.11% (Thu. Feb. 2, 2012) No Change
Yield Curve  Worsening (-11)
Credit Spread  Improving (36)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -1.4% away from the target price of 132.68.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.22% (three month std-dev: 1.26%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20120302

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Feb_2_20120%-14% 1.1%,0.9(-0)0.7%,0.6(-0.1)0.1%,0.100%1%1.3001NAN%0113.09   132.68(0.16%)132.21-133.02Uptrend 132.84(0.12%)132.28-133.0872
2Feb_1_2012-0.1%-13.9% 1.1%,0.9(-0)0.8%,0.6(-0.1)-0%,-000%1.1%1.3001NAN%0166.23   132.47(0.88%)132.13-133.14Uptrend 132.7(0.17%)132.06-132.9773
3Jan_31_2012-0.9%-12.9% 1.1%,0.9(-0)1%,0.7(-0.1)-0%,-000%1.1%0.7001NAN%0157.21   131.32(-0.04%)130.68-132.18Uptrend 131.6(0.21%)131.07-131.8269
4Jan_30_2012-0.9%-12.9% 1.2%,0.9(-0.1)1.1%,0.8(-0.1)-0%,-000%1.2%0.9000.9NAN%0147.31   131.37(-0.34%)130.06-131.44Uptrend 131.63(0.2%)131.07-131.8875
5Jan_27_2012-0.6%-13.3% 1.3%,0.9(-0)1.2%,0.8(-0.1)0.1%,000%1.2%1.2001.1NAN%0135.26   131.82(-0.05%)131.15-132.05Uptrend 132.15(0.25%)131.33-132.580
 
6Jan_26_2012-0.5%-13.4% 1.3%,0.8(-0.1)1.3%,0.9(-0.1)0.1%,000%1.3%1.3001.1NAN%0184.88   131.88(-0.51%)131.36-133.4Uptrend 132.22(0.26%)131.37-132.5976
7Jan_25_20120%-13.9% 1.5%,0.9(-0.1)1.4%,0.8(0)0.3%,0.200%1.3%1.7001.2NAN%0198.61   132.56(0.84%)130.75-132.87Uptrend 132.96(0.3%)131.85-133.4483
8Jan_24_2012-0.1%-13% 1.6%,1(-0)1.4%,0.9(-0)0.3%,0.200%1.3%1.4001.1NAN%0103.08   131.46(-0.11%)130.6-131.5Uptrend 131.95(0.37%)130.89-132.3982
9Jan_23_20120%-13.1% 1.7%,1.1(0)1.4%,0.9(0.1)0.4%,0.300%1.3%1.6001.1NAN%0129.3   131.61(0.05%)130.98-132.25Uptrend 132.06(0.34%)130.95-132.5288
10Jan_20_20120%-13.1% 1.7%,1.1(0)1.3%,0.9(-0.1)0.3%,0.200%1.3%1.9001NAN%0138.23   131.54(0.06%)130.92-131.95Uptrend 131.87(0.25%)130.82-132.3181
 
11Jan_19_20120%-13% 1.6%,1.1(0.2)1.4%,1(0.1)0.4%,0.200%1.3%2.1001NAN%0126.33   131.46(0.53%)130.8-131.57Breakout 131.81(0.27%)130.66-132.383
12Jan_18_20120%-12.4% 1.4%,1(0.1)1.3%,1(0)0.3%,0.200%1.4%2.1000.9NAN%0163.4   130.77(1.11%)129.08-130.84Breakout 131.04(0.21%)129.99-131.5168
13Jan_17_2012-0.1%-11.2% 1.2%,0.8(0.1)1.3%,0.9(0.1)0.2%,0.100%1.5%1.5000.9NAN%0132.21   129.34(0.39%)128.9-130.32Uptrend 129.62(0.22%)128.8-129.9765
14Jan_13_2012-0.5%-10.7% 1.1%,0.5(0.1)1.2%,0.6(-0)0.2%,0.100%1.5%1001.3NAN%0179.84   128.84(-0.52%)127.72-129.05Uptrend 129.21(0.29%)128.33-129.668
15Jan_12_20120%-11.3% 0.9%,0.4(0.1)1.3%,0.6(0)0.2%,0.100%1.6%1.4001.3NAN%0118.98   129.51(0.24%)128.54-129.7Uptrend 129.85(0.26%)128.78-130.375
 
16Jan_11_20120%-11.1% 0.7%,0.3(0.1)1.3%,0.6(-0.2)0.2%,0.100%1.5%1.4001.4NAN%0111.54   129.2(0.05%)128.52-129.37Uptrend 129.54(0.26%)128.47-13075
17Jan_10_20120%-11% 0.6%,0.3(0)1.6%,0.8(-0.1)0.3%,0.100%1.5%1.5001.3NAN%0115.28   129.13(0.87%)128.95-129.65Uptrend 129.53(0.31%)128.36-130.0382
18Jan_9_2012-0.5%-10% 0.5%,0.3(0.1)1.9%,1(-0)0.4%,0.200%1.4%1.2001.2NAN%099.53   128.02(0.24%)127.41-128.18Uptrend 128.44(0.33%)127.48-128.8673
19Jan_6_2012-0.7%-10.4% 0.4%,0.2(0)1.9%,1.1(-0)0.3%,0.100%1.3%1.2001.1NAN%0148.05   127.71(-0.26%)127.29-128.22Uptrend 128.12(0.32%)127.19-128.5169
20Jan_5_2012-0.5%-11.9% 0.4%,0.2(-0)2%,1.2(0.1)0.5%,0.300%1.1%1.5001.1NAN%0173.89   128.04(0.27%)126.43-128.23Growing Uptrend 128.62(0.45%)127.38-128.9271
 
21Jan_4_2012-0.7%-13.7% 0.5%,0.3(-0.1)1.8%,1.1(0.2)0.2%,0.100%0.9%1.4001NAN%0127.19   127.7(0.16%)126.71-127.81Growing Uptrend 128.17(0.37%)127.12-128.4464
22Jan_3_2012-0.9%-16% 0.7%,0.4(-0.2)1.5%,0.9(0.2)0.2%,0.100%0.4%1.5001NAN%0193.7   127.5(1.59%)127.43-128.38Growing Uptrend 127.86(0.28%)126.9-128.158
23Dec_30_2011-2.4%-14.2% 0.9%,0.6(-0.2)1.1%,0.7(0.1)0%,000%0.1%0.5000.9NAN%095.6   125.5(-0.49%)125.5-126.33Uptrend 125.76(0.21%)125.31-125.9647
24Dec_29_2011-2%-14.7% 1.2%,0.8(-0.1)0.9%,0.6(0.4)0.3%,0.200%-0.2%0.9000.9NAN%0123.51   126.12(1.03%)124.86-126.25Uptrend 126.35(0.18%)125.8-126.5855
25Dec_28_2011-3%-13.6% 1.4%,0.9(0)0.4%,0.3(0.2)0.1%,0.100%-0.5%0.2000.9NAN%0119.11   124.83(-1.31%)124.73-126.53Uptrend 125.05(0.18%)124.74-125.1944
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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