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     Mon. Jul. 31, 2006

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Mar. 3, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $127.8500 (-0.1%) ($126.5500 - $127.9600) on Mon. Jul. 31, 2006.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative  Growing Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing  $1.51 (1.2% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  0.89% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  0.3% (StdDev 0.89%)
Daily Moving Force  0.1%
Correction Force  Weak (0%)
Trend   0.16%
Trend Strength  0.1%
RSI   49
Momentum  1.3
Latest Price  $127.8500(-0.1%)
Forecasted Low Price  127.59(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price  128.74(0.7%)
Direction of Next Movement  Higher(0.5%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction  -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  1.8%
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  0
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (93% probability)
  QQQ(92%)    XLK(92%)    XLY(91%)    IWM(90%)    VGK(87%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least 0% in a week (35% probabilities).
  TLT(-43%)    SHY(-30%)    TIP(-19%)    REMX(-0%)    GLD(3%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   0.7 (options are expensive)
 
Market Trend Strength  0.3% (StdDev 0.89%)
Hourly BBV   0 ()
Intraday Trend   0.1%
  
 

  


Next Hour Price  $127.85(0%)
Support Level  $126.04
5 Day Moving Average  $127.21(0.5%)
10 Day Moving Average  $126.14(1.36%)
20 Day Moving Average  $126.04(1.44%)
To recent high  -3.6%
To recent low  4.3%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  50%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
 
Risk Appetite   (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  37.8 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate  5.31% (Mon. Jul. 31, 2006) Move Up
Yield Curve   (0)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.2% (three month std-dev: 0.89%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20060831

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Strength
RSIMomentumTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
1Jul_31_2006126.04 (0%)126.14 (0.2%)127.21 (0.3%)  (0%)127.85(-0.1%)126.55-127.960.9(1.2)0 0.1%0.3%0%0.16%0.1%491.3 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.5%)000Growing Uptrend 128.22(0.29%)127.58-128.3949.59   -3.6%-4.3% 
2Jul_28_2006125.99 (0%)125.7 (0.2%)126.88 (0.6%)  (0%)127.98(1%)126.86-128.140.8(1.3)0 0.1%0.3%0%0.12%-0.2%521.3 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.4%)000Uptrend 128.21(0.18%)127.68-128.4381.65   -3.5%-4.4% 
3Jul_27_2006125.94 (0%)125.24 (0%)126.07 (0.3%)  (0%)126.71(-0.09%)126.2-127.690.3(0.5)0 0.1%0.2%0%0.02%-0.5%491.3 N/A  Range(0.3%)000N/A 126.68(-0.02%)126.38-126.9387.26   -4.5%-3.4% 
4Jul_26_2006125.84 (0%)124.97 (-0%)125.7 (0.2%)  (0%)126.83(0.13%)126.18-127.450.1(0.7)0 %0.1%0%-0.04%-0.7%461.3 N/A  Range(0.1%)000N/A 126.53(-0.24%)126.28-126.7284.53   -4.4%-3.5% 
5Jul_25_2006125.7 (0%)124.85 (-0.2%)125.47 (0.4%)  (0%)126.66(0.36%)125.72-127.3-0(0.6)0 0.1%0%0%-0.06%-0.7%471.3 N/A  Range(0.1%)000Downtrend 126.51(-0.12%)126.51-126.5195.53   -4.5%-3.4% 
 
6Jul_24_2006125.61 (0%)124.88 (-0.2%)124.93 (0.5%)  (0%)126.21(1.82%)124.44-126.32-0.4(0.4)0 0.1%0%0%-0.12%-0.6%421.3 N/A  Range(0.1%)000Downtrend 126.02(-0.15%)125.99-126.192.89   -4.8%-3% 
7Jul_21_2006125.53 (-0%)124.91 (-0.2%)124.36 (0.1%)  (0%)123.95(-0.7%)123.82-125.19-0.8(-1.1)0 %-0.2%0%-0.16%-0.5%361.4 Downtrend Consolidation  Range(0.2%)000Downtrend 123.71(-0.19%)123.51-124.21101.73   -6.5%-1.1% 
8Jul_20_2006125.57 (-0%)125.17 (-0.2%)124.27 (0.1%)  (0%)124.83(-0.68%)124.66-126.3-0.8(-0.5)0 %-0.1%0%-0.18%-0.3%381.4 Downtrend Consolidation  Range(0.2%)000Downtrend 124.51(-0.26%)124.32-124.94112.34   -5.9%-1.9% 
9Jul_19_2006125.58 (-0%)125.42 (-0.2%)124.1 (-0.1%)  (0%)125.69(1.39%)123.72-126.26-0.9(0.1)0 %-0%0%-0.16%-0.1%551.4 Growing Downtrend  Range(0%)000Growing Downtrend 125.38(-0.25%)125.18-125.65134.4   -5.2%-2.6% 
10Jul_18_2006125.51 (-0%)125.54 (-0.2%)124.18 (-0.5%)  (0%)123.97(0.51%)122.39-124.05-1(-1)0 -0.1%-0.2%0%-0.12%0%531.4 Growing Downtrend  Range(-0.3%)000Downtrend 123.68(-0.23%)123.45-124.23123.71   -6.5%-1.2% 
 
11Jul_17_2006125.52 (0%)125.92 (-0%)124.86 (-0.6%)  (0%)123.34(-0.15%)123.15-124.1-0.7(-1.4)0 -0.1%-0.2%0%-0.06%0.3%461.4 N/A  Range(-0.2%)000Correction 122.33(-0.82%)122.14-123.1181.29   -7%-0.6
12Jul_14_2006125.6 (0%)126.33 (0%)125.57 (-0.5%)  (0%)123.52(-0.39%)122.83-124.26-0.2(-1.4)0 -0.1%-0.3%0%0.02%0.6%491.4 N/A  Range(-0.2%)000Range Bound 123.82(0.24%)124.17-123.52103.24   -6.9%-0.8
13Jul_13_2006125.74 (0%)126.73 (0.2%)126.18 (-0.5%)  (0%)124(-1.63%)124-125.680.3(-1.3)0 -0.1%-0.1%0%0.1%0.8%511.3 N/A  Higher(0.6%)000Uptrend Consolidation 124.5(0.4%)124.62-124.14102.62   -6.5%-1.2% 
14Jul_12_2006125.73 (0%)126.86 (0.2%)126.87 (-0.2%)  (0%)126.05(-1.07%)125.72-127.40.9(0.2)0 %0.1%0%0.14%0.9%561.3 Uptrend Consolidation  Higher(0.6%)000Uptrend 126.34(0.23%)126.01-126.4882.56   -5%-2.9% 
15Jul_11_2006125.57 (0%)126.68 (0.2%)127.08 (-0.1%)  (0%)127.41(0.44%)125.94-127.411.1(1.2)0 %0.2%0%0.16%0.9%671.5 Uptrend Consolidation  Range(0.2%)000Uptrend 127.7(0.23%)127.09-127.9773.64   -3.9%-4% 
 
16Jul_10_2006125.4 (0%)126.45 (0.2%)127.15 (-0.1%)  (0%)126.85(0.19%)126.41-127.431.2(0.9)0 %0.1%0%0.18%0.8%671.5 Uptrend Consolidation  Range(0.1%)000Uptrend 127.21(0.28%)126.58-127.4760.96   -4.4%-3.5% 
17Jul_7_2006125.31 (0%)126.22 (0.2%)127.23 (-0.1%)  (0%)126.61(-0.65%)126.29-127.561.4(0.9)0 %0.1%0%0.18%0.7%591.4 Uptrend Consolidation  Range(0.4%)000Uptrend 126.9(0.23%)126.34-127.1481.63   -4.5%-3.3% 
18Jul_6_2006125.26 (0%)126.01 (0.2%)127.36 (0.4%)  (0%)127.44(0.29%)127.08-127.851.5(1.5)0 0.1%0.2%0%0.16%0.6%541.4 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.3%)000N/A 127.43(-0.01%)126.32-128.3451.29   -3.9%-4% 
19Jul_5_2006125.16 (-0%)125.76 (0.2%)126.82 (0.5%)  (0%)127.07(-0.57%)126.52-127.451.2(1.4)0 0.1%0.2%0%0.14%0.5%631.3 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.6%)000Uptrend Reversal 127.53(0.36%)127.14-127.7869.65   -4.2%-3.7% 
20Jul_3_2006125.13 (-0%)125.46 (0.2%)126.19 (0.5%)  (0%)127.8(0.45%)127.31-128.010.9(1.9)0 0.1%0.3%0%0.12%0.3%691.3 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.4%)000Uptrend Reversal 128.26(0.36%)127.87-128.5123.94   -3.6%-4.3% 
 
21Jun_30_2006125.07 (-0%)125.04 (0.2%)125.63 (0.5%)  (0%)127.23(-0.03%)126.96-127.660.4(1.4)0 0.1%0.1%0%0.06%-0%601.5 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.2%)000Uptrend Reversal 127.73(0.39%)127.31-128.0154.23   -4.1%-3.8% 
22Jun_29_2006125.13 (-0%)124.76 (0%)125.07 (0.5%)  (0%)127.27(2.02%)125.17-127.35-0(1.3)0 0.1%0.1%0%0.02%-0.3%541.6 N/A  Range(0.2%)000Uptrend Reversal 127.8(0.42%)127.35-128.11110.7   -4%-3.9% 
23Jun_28_2006125.17 (-0.2%)124.6 (0%)124.51 (-0%)  (0%)124.75(0.68%)123.65-124.77-0.5(-0.3)0 %0%0%-0.02%-0.5%461.7 N/A  Range(0%)000Rebound 124.96(0.17%)124.67-125.0862.37   -5.9%-1.8% 
24Jun_27_2006125.3 (-0%)124.48 (-0%)124.56 (-0%)  (0%)123.91(-0.86%)123.77-125.29-0.6(-0.8)0 %0%0%-0.04%-0.7%421.7 N/A  Higher(0.4%)000Rebound 124.55(0.52%)123.75-124.8969.83   -6.6%-1.1% 
25Jun_26_2006125.41 (-0%)124.37 (-0%)124.6 (0.2%)  (0%)124.99(0.44%)124.25-125.06-0.6(-0.3)0 %0%0%-0.08%-0.8%421.7 N/A  Range(0%)000Rebound 125.26(0.22%)124.74-125.4937.91   -5.8%-2% 
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Strength
RSIMomentumTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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