Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SPY: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Jul. 31, 2006

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Mar. 3, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $127.8500 (-0.1%) ($126.5500 - $127.9600) on Mon. Jul. 31, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative   Growing Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $1.51 (1.2% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.89% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.3% (StdDev 0.89%)
Daily Moving Force   0.1%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.16%
Trend Strength   0.1%
RSI   49
Momentum   1.3
Latest Price   $127.8500(-0.1%)
Forecasted Low Price   127.59(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price   128.74(0.7%)
Direction of Next Movement   Higher(0.5%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   -100% (0)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.8%
Hourly Trend 0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   0
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (93% probability)
QQQ(92%)    XLK(92%)    XLY(91%)    IWM(90%)    VGK(87%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will advance at least 0% in a week (35% probabilities).
TLT(-43%)    SHY(-30%)    TIP(-19%)    REMX(-0%)    GLD(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0

Relative Volatility 0.7 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   0.3% (StdDev 0.89%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

Next Hour Price   $127.85(0%)
Support Level   $126.04
5 Day Moving Average   $127.21(0.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $126.14(1.36%)
20 Day Moving Average   $126.04(1.44%)
To recent high   -3.6%
To recent low   4.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

Advance Ratio   50%
Stage of the Market   Normal

Risk Appetite    (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate   5.31% (Mon. Jul. 31, 2006) Move Up
Yield Curve    (0)

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.2% (three month std-dev: 0.89% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060831

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Jul_31_2006	126.04 (0%)	126.14 (0.2%)	127.21 (0.3%)		(0%)	127.85(-0.1%)	126.55-127.96	0.9(1.2)	0	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.16%	0.1%	49	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.5%)	0	0	0	Growing Uptrend	128.22(0.29%)	127.58-128.39	49.59	-3.6%-4.3%
2	Jul_28_2006	125.99 (0%)	125.7 (0.2%)	126.88 (0.6%)		(0%)	127.98(1%)	126.86-128.14	0.8(1.3)	0	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.12%	-0.2%	52	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	0	0	0	Uptrend	128.21(0.18%)	127.68-128.43	81.65	-3.5%-4.4%
3	Jul_27_2006	125.94 (0%)	125.24 (0%)	126.07 (0.3%)		(0%)	126.71(-0.09%)	126.2-127.69	0.3(0.5)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.02%	-0.5%	49	1.3	N/A	Range(0.3%)	0	0	0	N/A	126.68(-0.02%)	126.38-126.93	87.26	-4.5%-3.4%
4	Jul_26_2006	125.84 (0%)	124.97 (-0%)	125.7 (0.2%)		(0%)	126.83(0.13%)	126.18-127.45	0.1(0.7)	0	%	0.1%	0%	-0.04%	-0.7%	46	1.3	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	N/A	126.53(-0.24%)	126.28-126.72	84.53	-4.4%-3.5%
5	Jul_25_2006	125.7 (0%)	124.85 (-0.2%)	125.47 (0.4%)		(0%)	126.66(0.36%)	125.72-127.3	-0(0.6)	0	0.1%	0%	0%	-0.06%	-0.7%	47	1.3	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	126.51(-0.12%)	126.51-126.51	95.53	-4.5%-3.4%

6	Jul_24_2006	125.61 (0%)	124.88 (-0.2%)	124.93 (0.5%)		(0%)	126.21(1.82%)	124.44-126.32	-0.4(0.4)	0	0.1%	0%	0%	-0.12%	-0.6%	42	1.3	N/A	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	126.02(-0.15%)	125.99-126.1	92.89	-4.8%-3%
7	Jul_21_2006	125.53 (-0%)	124.91 (-0.2%)	124.36 (0.1%)		(0%)	123.95(-0.7%)	123.82-125.19	-0.8(-1.1)	0	%	-0.2%	0%	-0.16%	-0.5%	36	1.4	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0.2%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	123.71(-0.19%)	123.51-124.21	101.73	-6.5%-1.1%
8	Jul_20_2006	125.57 (-0%)	125.17 (-0.2%)	124.27 (0.1%)		(0%)	124.83(-0.68%)	124.66-126.3	-0.8(-0.5)	0	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.18%	-0.3%	38	1.4	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0.2%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	124.51(-0.26%)	124.32-124.94	112.34	-5.9%-1.9%
9	Jul_19_2006	125.58 (-0%)	125.42 (-0.2%)	124.1 (-0.1%)		(0%)	125.69(1.39%)	123.72-126.26	-0.9(0.1)	0	%	-0%	0%	-0.16%	-0.1%	55	1.4	Growing Downtrend	Range(0%)	0	0	0	Growing Downtrend	125.38(-0.25%)	125.18-125.65	134.4	-5.2%-2.6%
10	Jul_18_2006	125.51 (-0%)	125.54 (-0.2%)	124.18 (-0.5%)		(0%)	123.97(0.51%)	122.39-124.05	-1(-1)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.12%	0%	53	1.4	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	0	0	0	Downtrend	123.68(-0.23%)	123.45-124.23	123.71	-6.5%-1.2%

11	Jul_17_2006	125.52 (0%)	125.92 (-0%)	124.86 (-0.6%)		(0%)	123.34(-0.15%)	123.15-124.1	-0.7(-1.4)	0	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.06%	0.3%	46	1.4	N/A	Range(-0.2%)	0	0	0	Correction	122.33(-0.82%)	122.14-123.11	81.29	-7%-0.6%
12	Jul_14_2006	125.6 (0%)	126.33 (0%)	125.57 (-0.5%)		(0%)	123.52(-0.39%)	122.83-124.26	-0.2(-1.4)	0	-0.1%	-0.3%	0%	0.02%	0.6%	49	1.4	N/A	Range(-0.2%)	0	0	0	Range Bound	123.82(0.24%)	124.17-123.52	103.24	-6.9%-0.8%
13	Jul_13_2006	125.74 (0%)	126.73 (0.2%)	126.18 (-0.5%)		(0%)	124(-1.63%)	124-125.68	0.3(-1.3)	0	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.1%	0.8%	51	1.3	N/A	Higher(0.6%)	0	0	0	Uptrend Consolidation	124.5(0.4%)	124.62-124.14	102.62	-6.5%-1.2%
14	Jul_12_2006	125.73 (0%)	126.86 (0.2%)	126.87 (-0.2%)		(0%)	126.05(-1.07%)	125.72-127.4	0.9(0.2)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.14%	0.9%	56	1.3	Uptrend Consolidation	Higher(0.6%)	0	0	0	Uptrend	126.34(0.23%)	126.01-126.48	82.56	-5%-2.9%
15	Jul_11_2006	125.57 (0%)	126.68 (0.2%)	127.08 (-0.1%)		(0%)	127.41(0.44%)	125.94-127.41	1.1(1.2)	0	%	0.2%	0%	0.16%	0.9%	67	1.5	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.2%)	0	0	0	Uptrend	127.7(0.23%)	127.09-127.97	73.64	-3.9%-4%

16	Jul_10_2006	125.4 (0%)	126.45 (0.2%)	127.15 (-0.1%)		(0%)	126.85(0.19%)	126.41-127.43	1.2(0.9)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.18%	0.8%	67	1.5	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.1%)	0	0	0	Uptrend	127.21(0.28%)	126.58-127.47	60.96	-4.4%-3.5%
17	Jul_7_2006	125.31 (0%)	126.22 (0.2%)	127.23 (-0.1%)		(0%)	126.61(-0.65%)	126.29-127.56	1.4(0.9)	0	%	0.1%	0%	0.18%	0.7%	59	1.4	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.4%)	0	0	0	Uptrend	126.9(0.23%)	126.34-127.14	81.63	-4.5%-3.3%
18	Jul_6_2006	125.26 (0%)	126.01 (0.2%)	127.36 (0.4%)		(0%)	127.44(0.29%)	127.08-127.85	1.5(1.5)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.16%	0.6%	54	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.3%)	0	0	0	N/A	127.43(-0.01%)	126.32-128.34	51.29	-3.9%-4%
19	Jul_5_2006	125.16 (-0%)	125.76 (0.2%)	126.82 (0.5%)		(0%)	127.07(-0.57%)	126.52-127.45	1.2(1.4)	0	0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.14%	0.5%	63	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.6%)	0	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	127.53(0.36%)	127.14-127.78	69.65	-4.2%-3.7%
20	Jul_3_2006	125.13 (-0%)	125.46 (0.2%)	126.19 (0.5%)		(0%)	127.8(0.45%)	127.31-128.01	0.9(1.9)	0	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.12%	0.3%	69	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	0	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	128.26(0.36%)	127.87-128.51	23.94	-3.6%-4.3%

21	Jun_30_2006	125.07 (-0%)	125.04 (0.2%)	125.63 (0.5%)		(0%)	127.23(-0.03%)	126.96-127.66	0.4(1.4)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.06%	-0%	60	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	0	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	127.73(0.39%)	127.31-128.01	54.23	-4.1%-3.8%
22	Jun_29_2006	125.13 (-0%)	124.76 (0%)	125.07 (0.5%)		(0%)	127.27(2.02%)	125.17-127.35	-0(1.3)	0	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.02%	-0.3%	54	1.6	N/A	Range(0.2%)	0	0	0	Uptrend Reversal	127.8(0.42%)	127.35-128.11	110.7	-4%-3.9%
23	Jun_28_2006	125.17 (-0.2%)	124.6 (0%)	124.51 (-0%)		(0%)	124.75(0.68%)	123.65-124.77	-0.5(-0.3)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.02%	-0.5%	46	1.7	N/A	Range(0%)	0	0	0	Rebound	124.96(0.17%)	124.67-125.08	62.37	-5.9%-1.8%
24	Jun_27_2006	125.3 (-0%)	124.48 (-0%)	124.56 (-0%)		(0%)	123.91(-0.86%)	123.77-125.29	-0.6(-0.8)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.04%	-0.7%	42	1.7	N/A	Higher(0.4%)	0	0	0	Rebound	124.55(0.52%)	123.75-124.89	69.83	-6.6%-1.1%
25	Jun_26_2006	125.41 (-0%)	124.37 (-0%)	124.6 (0.2%)		(0%)	124.99(0.44%)	124.25-125.06	-0.6(-0.3)	0	%	0%	0%	-0.08%	-0.8%	42	1.7	N/A	Range(0%)	0	0	0	Rebound	125.26(0.22%)	124.74-125.49	37.91	-5.8%-2%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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