Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 7, 2020

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $84.8400 (0.33%) ($84.1200 - $87.8100) on Fri. Aug. 7, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.55% (three month average)
RSI   43
Latest Price   $84.8400(0.33%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Rotation from growth to value for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(60%)    XBI(52%)    ARKG(51%)    IWO(51%)    IWC(46%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.775% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-25%)    UUP(-14%)    VXX(-12%)    TBT(-6%)    IYT(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.775% (StdDev 3.55%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $84.11(0.87%)
10 Day Moving Average   $81.24(4.43%)
20 Day Moving Average   $82.21(3.2%)
To recent high   -5.7%
To recent low   34.4%
Market Cap   $5.126b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 4.12% (three month std-dev: 3.55%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.76%(25%) Average negative next day return: -2.14%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 4.35%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -4.08%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 1.97%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.59%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20200907

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_7_2020	68.98	82.21	81.24	84.11	84.16	84.66	84.84(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	40	28	37	0.29	64%	0.7	-21.4	3.55%	0	0.8	43	1.6
2	Aug_6_2020	68.5	82.25	80.52	82.78	83.1	83.96	84.56(1.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	17	80	21	3	0.22	64%	0.74	-30.8	3.61%	0	0.7	47	1.7
3	Aug_5_2020	68	82.37	79.93	81.39	82.25	83.67	83.46(-0.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	30	150	45	-14	0.28	64%	0.7	-34.5	3.62%	0	0.3	47	1.7
4	Aug_4_2020	67.53	82.66	79.8	79.94	80.43	82.23	84.17(0.75%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	23	180	43	-36	0.36	68%	0.78	-30.7	3.61%	0	0.4	47	1.6
5	Aug_3_2020	67.01	82.81	79.71	78.48	78.79	80.83	83.54(6.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	14	190	36	-52	0.43	68%	0.62	-25.1	3.82%	0	0.2	48	1.3

6	Jul_31_2020	66.6	82.95	80.03	78.05	78.24	78.62	78.16(0.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	8	40	28	-52	0.56	66%	0.56	-16.8	3.76%	0	-1.1	45	1.5
7	Jul_30_2020	66.23	83.35	80.77	77.98	77.92	76.76	77.6(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-32	-110	-18	-72	0.33	66%	0.5	-8.6	3.79%	0	-1.4	37	1.3
8	Jul_29_2020	65.9	83.73	81.51	78.24	78.16	77.86	76.25(-0.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-45	-30	-33	-80	0.34	66%	0.43	5.7	3.85%	0	-2	33	1.6
9	Jul_28_2020	65.62	83.91	82.45	79.58	79.19	79.09	76.84(-5.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-25	-20	-11	-66	0.38	61%	0.49	17	3.84%	0	-1.9	31	1.5
10	Jul_27_2020	65.3	83.84	83.25	81.07	80.48	78.45	81.42(4.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-41	-200	-32	-66	0.39	64%	0.48	22.8	3.9%	0	-0.6	40	1.5

11	Jul_24_2020	64.99	83.66	83.34	82.37	82.21	79.29	77.77(-1.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-73	-250	-71	-77	0.39	62%	0.39	28.5	3.89%	0	-1.4	36	1.2
12	Jul_23_2020	64.74	83.71	84.23	83.99	84.76	82.5	78.93(-4.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-50	-160	-49	-53	0.36	62%	0.36	45	3.9%	0	-1.1	39	1.3
13	Jul_22_2020	64.51	83.52	85.16	85.21	85.81	85.13	82.95(-1.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-28	-30	-28	-28	0.27	66%	0.45	50.9	3.84%	0	-0.1	49	1.8
14	Jul_21_2020	64.22	83.29	85.85	85.21	85.87	87.02	84.3(-4.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	8	100	7	10	0.26	66%	0.44	59.8	3.85%	0	0.2	64	1.8
15	Jul_20_2020	63.94	82.94	86.2	85.7	85.84	86.5	87.91(2.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	43	60	41	48	0.32	72%	0.52	65.6	3.82%	0	1	76	2.2

16	Jul_17_2020	63.61	82.45	86.06	84.5	84.56	84.73	85.88(1.05%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	5	20	-5	34	0.71	72%	0.52	69.7	3.91%	0	0.7	67	1.9
17	Jul_16_2020	63.28	81.81	86.06	84.58	84.43	85.18	84.99(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	14	60	1	53	0.39	72%	0.48	72.1	3.93%	0	0.6	64	1.5
18	Jul_15_2020	62.98	81.17	86.08	85.17	85.19	84.39	85.41(1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	18	-70	-2	79	0.33	72%	0.49	71.6	3.92%	0	0.7	69	1.4
19	Jul_14_2020	62.67	80.47	85.45	86.09	85.84	83.69	84.29(2.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-16	-180	-46	74	0.36	74%	0.45	72.9	3.95%	0	0.6	60	0.9
20	Jul_13_2020	62.39	79.74	84.51	86.81	87.54	85.99	81.95(-5%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-8	-100	-37	81	0.48	74%	0.37	71.8	4.05%	0	0.3	59	0

21	Jul_10_2020	62.16	79.09	84.08	87.77	88.41	88	86.26(-1.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	15	-10	-14	103	0.26	78%	0.42	71.2	3.98%	0	1.1	62	1.2
22	Jul_9_2020	61.9	78.13	83.24	87.72	88.55	89.09	87.95(-2.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	42	70	14	126	0.32	78%	0.44	66.7	4%	0	1.4	70	0.8
23	Jul_8_2020	61.63	77.27	81.83	87.06	87.64	88.83	90(2.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	63	120	38	137	0.39	78%	0.47	66.4	3.98%	0	1.9	74	0.9
24	Jul_7_2020	61.34	76.31	80.54	84.71	85.8	88.01	87.88(1.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	79	220	60	135	0.45	78%	0.46	59.6	4.01%	0	1.9	74	0.7
25	Jul_6_2020	61.06	75.41	79.38	81.86	82.67	86.46	86.75(0.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	85	350	72	124	0.71	80%		51.7	4.02%	0	2	74	1.1
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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