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     Thu. May. 15, 2008



Trading Signals: QQQ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Nov. 27, 2020)

(PowerShares QQQ ETF)

QQQ latest price $49.9700 (1.75%) ($48.9800 - $50.0200) on Thu. May. 15, 2008.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Uptrend
Implied Volatility  n/a (,,)
Call Money Flow  Bearish (,,)
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  QQQ advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  QQQ advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support QQQ advance at 0.9% a week (93% probability)
  XLK(96%)    SPY(92%)    XLY(88%)    IWM(85%)    EEM(80%)  
Factors Impacting QQQ price  QQQ will advance at least 0.2% in a week (29% probabilities).
  TLT(-40%)    SHY(-29%)    TIP(-18%)    VXX(-7%)    XLC(-5%)  
Explanation   The rally is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   -1.6
 
Relative Volatility   -0.2 (options are faily valued)
 
Hourly BBV   0
Hourly Trend   0% [$0(0), $0(0)]
Last Hour Trend   0% [$0, $0]


QQQ Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  82%
Bullish Price Move  1.6%
Bearish Probability  18%
Bearish Price Move  -1.6%
Recommended Position Size  40%
Latest Price  $49.9700
Next Hour Price  $49.97(0%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $50.26(0.59%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $50.89(1.84%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $49.59 - $50.56
Support Level  $48.08
5 Day Moving Average  $49.12(1.73%)
10 Day Moving Average  $48.86(2.27%)
20 Day Moving Average  $48.08(3.93%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  21.1%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  75%
Stage of the Market  Normal Strong Uptrend
 
Average Volume  116.76 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  0
One Month Target Price  > $49.97
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $45.95
 


  
 
Risk Appetite  Risk On (10)
Fed Balance Sheet  0.88 T (Wed. May. 14, 2008) No Change
Fed Fund Rate  2.03% (Thu. May. 15, 2008) No Change
Yield Curve  Improving (3)
Credit Spread  Improving (2)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -5% away from the target price of 49.97.
$. QQQ price fluctuates within 2.35% (three month std-dev: 1.61%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. QQQ price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20080615

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1May_15_20080%-21.1% 2.3%,1(0.1)1.6%,0.7(0)0.6%,0.300%1.6%1.70-1.61.5NAN%0157.25   49.97(1.75%)48.98-50.02Uptrend 50.26(0.59%)49.59-50.5672
2May_14_2008-0.2%-19% 2.1%,0.9(0)1.5%,0.6(0.1)0.5%,0.200%1.8%1.10-1.61.5NAN%0143.6   49.11(-0.22%)49.04-49.93Uptrend 49.4(0.59%)48.84-49.6467
3May_13_20080%-19.3% 2.1%,0.7(0)1.4%,0.5(-0.1)0.1%,000%1.8%1.20-1.61.7NAN%085.45   49.22(0.26%)48.76-49.33Uptrend 49.5(0.57%)48.88-49.7771
4May_12_20080%-19% 2%,0.6(0.1)1.6%,0.5(0)0.2%,0.100%2%1.20-1.61.9NAN%089.64   49.09(1.83%)48.2-49.19Uptrend 49.46(0.76%)48.75-49.7773
5May_9_2008-1.5%-16.8% 1.8%,0.6(0)1.6%,0.5(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.100%2.1%0.70-1.62NAN%097.06   48.21(-0.39%)47.9-48.46Uptrend 48.57(0.75%)47.98-48.8360
 
6May_8_2008-1.1%-17.3% 1.7%,0.5(-0)1.8%,0.6(-0.2)-0.1%,-000%2.4%0.90-1.62NAN%0128.06   48.4(0.75%)48.06-48.7Uptrend 48.81(0.84%)48.13-49.164
7May_7_2008-1.8%-16.4% 1.8%,0.5(0)2.3%,0.7(-0)0.3%,0.100%2.4%0.80-1.62NAN%0140.01   48.04(-1.82%)47.87-49.23Uptrend 48.57(1.1%)47.81-48.971
8May_6_20080%-18.6% 1.6%,0.5(0)2.5%,0.8(-0.1)0.6%,0.200%2.5%1.50-1.62NAN%0139.58   48.93(0.62%)48.14-49.13Uptrend 49.39(0.95%)48.46-49.878
9May_5_2008-0.3%-17.9% 1.5%,0.5(-0)2.7%,0.9(-0.1)0.6%,0.200%2.4%1.50-1.61.9NAN%075.62   48.63(-0.29%)48.4-49.03Uptrend 49.07(0.9%)48.18-49.4581
10May_2_20080%-18.2% 1.5%,0.5(-0)3%,1(-0.1)0.7%,0.200%2.4%1.80-1.61.7NAN%0124.99   48.77(0.14%)48.34-49.19Uptrend 49.21(0.9%)48.28-49.6183
 
11May_1_20080%-18% 1.6%,0.6(-0)3.1%,1.2(0.1)0.6%,0.200%2.3%20-1.61.6NAN%0143.6   48.7(3.16%)47.22-48.72Breakout 49.13(0.88%)48.19-49.5480
12Apr_30_2008-0.8%-14.4% 1.6%,0.7(-0)2.8%,1.2(-0)0.2%,0.100%1.9%1.10-1.71.4NAN%0132.15   47.21(-0.82%)47.03-48.06Uptrend 47.6(0.82%)46.96-47.8761
13Apr_29_20080%-15.4% 1.7%,0.7(0)2.9%,1.3(0.2)0.5%,0.200%1.7%1.60-1.71.4NAN%091.27   47.6(0.76%)47.06-47.76Growing Uptrend 48.05(0.95%)47.28-48.2567
14Apr_28_2008-0.1%-14.5% 1.6%,0.7(0)2.4%,1(0.1)0.1%,000%1.2%1.30-1.71.4NAN%071.24   47.24(0.19%)47.13-47.62Growing Uptrend 47.62(0.81%)46.97-47.7961
15Apr_25_2008-0.3%-14.3% 1.5%,0.6(0)2.1%,0.9(0.2)0.2%,0.100%0.9%1.40-1.71.5NAN%0121.95   47.15(-0.25%)46.57-47.35Growing Uptrend 47.49(0.73%)46.84-47.6658
 
16Apr_24_20080%-14.6% 1.5%,0.6(0)1.7%,0.7(0.2)0.9%,0.400%0.7%1.60-1.71.4NAN%0166.69   47.27(0.9%)46.39-47.79Growing Uptrend 47.62(0.73%)46.93-47.7857
17Apr_23_2008-0.4%-13.5% 1.5%,0.6(0)1.2%,0.5(0.2)0.6%,0.300%0.7%1.50-1.71.3NAN%0131.09   46.85(1.1%)46.27-47.06Growing Uptrend 47.08(0.5%)46.53-47.2257
18Apr_22_2008-1.5%-12.3% 1.4%,0.7(-0)0.8%,0.4(0.3)1%,0.500%0.5%1.20-1.71.3NAN%0104.69   46.34(-1.49%)45.93-46.77Growing Uptrend 46.53(0.41%)46.12-46.6455
19Apr_21_20080%-14% 1.5%,0.7(0.1)0.2%,0.1(0.2)1.3%,0.700%0.5%2.10-1.71.2NAN%083.3   47.04(0.71%)46.49-47.08Breakout 47.09(0.11%)46.66-47.2859
20Apr_18_20080%-13.2% 1.4%,0.8(0.2)-0.1%,-0.1(0.1)1.1%,0.600%0.4%2.10-1.71.1NAN%0133.02   46.71(3.18%)46.22-46.93Breakout 46.7(-0.03%)46.37-46.8469
 
21Apr_17_2008-1.3%-9.7% 1.1%,0.6(-0)-0.3%,-0.1(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.100%0.6%0.60-1.81.1NAN%0125.06   45.27(-0.22%)44.98-45.75Correction 45.06(-0.46%)44.86-45.3165
22Apr_16_2008-1.5%-10% 1.1%,0.5(-0)0.2%,0.1(-0)0.2%,0.100%0.9%0.70-1.71.3NAN%0134.03   45.37(2.79%)44.65-45.48N/A 45.32(-0.1%)45-45.5963
23Apr_15_2008-5.2%-7% 1.1%,0.5(-0.1)0.2%,0.1(-0.2)-0.6%,-0.300%1.2%-0.40-1.81.4NAN%0124.23   44.14(0.14%)43.68-44.35Uptrend Consolidation 44.27(0.29%)44.29-44.2148
24Apr_14_2008-7.9%-6.8% 1.3%,0.5(-0.1)0.7%,0.3(-0.1)-0.8%,-0.300%1.8%-0.30-1.71.6NAN%089.27   44.08(-0.45%)43.95-44.48Uptrend 44.27(0.42%)44.14-44.3246
25Apr_11_2008-7.5%-7.3% 1.6%,0.5(-0.1)1%,0.3(-0.2)-0.7%,-0.200%1.9%-0.10-1.71.7NAN%0120.14   44.28(-2.77%)44.12-45.1Uptrend 44.5(0.5%)44.28-44.650
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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