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     Wed. Jul. 29, 2020



Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Sep. 18, 2020)

(Microsoft)

MSFT latest price $204.1600 (0.99%) ($202.0100 - $204.6500) on Wed. Jul. 29, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Correction
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  MSFT declines -0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  MSFT declines -1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support MSFT decline at-0.2% a week (87% probability)
  XLK(89%)    QQQ(88%)    IWF(87%)    VUG(86%)    IVW(85%)  
Factors Impacting MSFT price  MSFT will advance at least 1% in a week (42% probabilities).
  VXX(-53%)    VIXM(-53%)    UUP(-26%)    TLT(-25%)    BJK(-10%)  
Explanation   The decline is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   -1.4
 
Relative Volatility   -1.8 (options are cheap)
 
Hourly Trend   0.3% [$203.22(0.31), $202.61(-0.21)]
Last Hour Trend   0.07% [$204.05, $203.91]


MSFT Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  64%
Bullish Price Move  1.7%
Bearish Probability  36%
Bearish Price Move  -1.7%
Recommended Position Size  16%
Latest Price  $204.1600
Next Day Open Price  $204.45(0.14%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $200.49(-1.8%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $199.86 - $202.99
Inflection Point  Yes
Resistance Level  $207.23
5 Day Moving Average  $202.87(0.64%)
10 Day Moving Average  $205.23(-0.52%)
20 Day Moving Average  $207.23(-1.48%)
To recent high  -4.7%
To recent low  16.9%
Market Cap  $1545.695b
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
Earning Release Date  Thu. Oct. 22, 2020
Analyst One Year Target Price  $231.23 ($208.00 - $260.00)
  28 analysts (last updated on Fri. Jul. 24, 2020)
% to Average Target Price  13.26%
% to Low Target Price  1.88%
% to High Target Price  27.35%
 


  
 
 


Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.


$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. MSFT price fluctuates within 1.92% (three month std-dev: 1.72%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. MSFT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20200829

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVT(RV,IV)VIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Jul_29_2020-4.7%-16.9% 0.3%,0.2(-0.1)-1.8%,-0.9(-0.1)-0.7%,-0.40.60.07%-1%-0.8-1.4-1.8(1.92%,1.17%)1.919.79   204.16(0.99%)202.01-204.65Correction 200.49(-1.8%)199.86-202.9939
2Jul_28_2020-5.6%-18.5% 0.5%,0.3(-0.1)-1.6%,-0.8(-0.2)-0.6%,-0.30-0.22%-0.8%-1.3-1.4-2(1.94%,1.41%)1.823.2   202.15(-0.83%)201.74-204.7Correction 199.18(-1.47%)198.63-201.3739
3Jul_27_2020-4.8%-19.5% 0.7%,0.3(-0.1)-1.3%,-0.6(-0.1)-0.7%,-0.4-2.10.21%-0.4%-0.8-1.4-1.9(2.09%,1.32%)1.828.97   203.84(1.13%)200.86-203.97Correction 200.99(-1.4%)200.43-203.247
4Jul_24_2020-5.9%-18.1% 0.9%,0.4(-0.1)-1.1%,-0.5(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.1-2.70.06%-0.1%-1.1-1.8-1.7(2.35%,1.53%)1.539.64   201.57(-0.52%)197.51-202.86Correction 198.81(-1.37%)198.25-201.141
5Jul_23_2020-5.4%-18.8% 1.1%,0.4(-0.1)-0.7%,-0.3(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.1-0.9-0.43%0.5%-0.8-2-1.8(2.39%,1.98%)1.467.27   202.63(-4.27%)202.15-210.92Correction 200.68(-0.96%)200.21-202.6348
 
6Jul_22_2020-1.2%-24% 1.2%,0.5(-0)-0.2%,-0.1(-0.1)0.4%,0.11.20.16%1.1%1-0.6-1.5(2.55%,2.24%)1.747.37   211.66(1.39%)208.39-212.3Correction 209.52(-1.01%)207.34-212.259
7Jul_21_2020-2.5%-24.5% 1.3%,0.5(-0.1)-0%,-0(-0.2)0%,02.10%1.4%0.5-1.1-1.7(2.53%,2.4%)1.738.02   208.75(-1.31%)208.03-213.94Correction 207.83(-0.44%)206.64-209.2858
8Jul_20_2020-1.2%-26.1% 1.5%,0.6(-0)0.4%,0.2(-0.1)0.5%,0.200.46%1.6%1.1-0.2-1.7(2.58%,2.23%)2.136.74   211.52(4.23%)203.01-212.3Uptrend Consolidation 209.87(-0.78%)209.07-212.2567
9Jul_17_2020-5.3%-21% 1.6%,0.6(-0.2)0.8%,0.3(-0.3)-1.1%,-0.4-1.20.06%1.9%-0.4-1.5-0.8(2.71%,2.34%)231.4   202.93(-0.48%)201.39-205.04Uptrend Consolidation 203.72(0.39%)203.75-203.6663
10Jul_16_2020-4.8%-21.6% 2.2%,0.8(-0.1)1.7%,0.6(-0.3)-1%,-0.3-0.6-0.04%2.2%-0.1-1-0.3(2.86%,2.69%)1.829.87   203.91(-1.99%)202.31-205.7Uptrend Consolidation 204.26(0.17%)203.91-205.2757
 
11Jul_15_2020-2.9%-24% 2.4%,0.8(-0.1)2.6%,0.8(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.1-0.90.06%2.5%0.6-0.20.2(3.05%,2.96%)1.832.32   208.04(-0.18%)205.03-211.33Uptrend Consolidation 207.44(-0.29%)206.45-210.3766
12Jul_14_2020-2.7%-24.3% 2.7%,0.8(-0)3%,0.9(0)0%,0-1.20.08%2.7%0.70.30.5(3.21%,2.89%)1.337.47   208.42(0.74%)202.03-208.85Uptrend 211.17(1.32%)207.42-212.7758
13Jul_13_2020-3.4%-25% 2.7%,0.8(-0)3%,0.8(-0.1)-0.4%,-0.1-0.3-0.96%2.7%0.60.51(3.51%,2.31%)138   206.88(-3.25%)206.5-215.8Uptrend 209.65(1.34%)205.97-211.2459
14Jul_10_2020-0.2%-29.2% 2.9%,0.8(0)3.3%,0.9(0)0.7%,0.20.30.06%2.7%1.61.61.6(3.83%,1.96%)1.326.13   213.83(-0.16%)211.08-214.08Uptrend 217.38(1.66%)211.37-219.9772
15Jul_9_20200%-29.7% 2.8%,0.7(-0)3.2%,0.8(0.1)0.9%,0.20.30.07%2.8%1.81.91.8(3.89%,1.57%)133.06   214.18(0.69%)211.47-216.38Uptrend 217.39(1.5%)211.26-220.0271
 
16Jul_8_20200%-28.9% 2.9%,0.8(0)2.8%,0.8(0)0.9%,0.30.60.25%2.4%1.91.41.4(3.56%,1.7%)1.133.53   212.72(2.18%)208.69-213.26Uptrend 215.32(1.22%)209.88-217.6450
17Jul_7_2020-1.2%-27.4% 2.7%,0.8(0)2.8%,0.8(-0)1%,0.31.2-0.37%2.4%1.511.1(3.33%,2.2%)133.48   208.18(-1.23%)207.99-214.67Uptrend 210.76(1.24%)206.27-212.6950
18Jul_6_20200%-29% 2.6%,0.8(0.1)2.8%,0.9(0.1)1.4%,0.41.2-0.04%2.5%2.111.1(3.28%,1.64%)1.131.91   210.77(2.16%)208.09-211.13Overbought 206.07(-2.23%)199.71-215.6150
19Jul_2_20200%-34.1% 2.3%,0.7(0)2.4%,0.7(-0.1)0.6%,0.21.5-0.07%2.3%1.60.91.2(3.29%,0.94%)1.229.29   206.32(0.86%)205-208.02Uptrend 208.03(0.83%)204.12-209.7150
20Jul_1_20200%-34.6% 2.2%,0.7(0)2.6%,0.8(0.1)0.7%,0.21.50.19%2.4%1.60.91.2(3.2%,1.22%)0.932.06   204.57(0.63%)201.77-206.35Growing Uptrend 206.8(1.09%)202.6-207.8550
 
21Jun_30_20200%-33.7% 2.1%,0.7(-0)2.1%,0.7(-0)0.2%,00.30.24%2.4%1.50.91.2(3.13%,1.52%)0.434.28   203.29(2.51%)197.74-204.4Uptrend 204.49(0.59%)201.38-205.8450
22Jun_29_2020-1.8%-30.5% 2.2%,0.7(-0)2.3%,0.7(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.1-0.3-0.04%2.4%0.90.61.3(3.11%,1.81%)0.426.22   198.31(0.94%)193.55-198.53Uptrend 199.72(0.71%)197.23-200.7850
23Jun_26_2020-2.7%-31.3% 2.3%,0.7(-0)2.5%,0.8(-0)0.1%,0-0.6-0.09%2.3%0.70.81.5(3.17%,1.58%)0.154.18   196.46(-1.96%)194.88-199.89Uptrend 198.15(0.86%)195.53-199.2650
24Jun_25_2020-0.7%-36.4% 2.3%,0.7(0.1)2.5%,0.8(0)0.4%,0.1-0.60.07%2.2%1.40.71.8(3.31%,1.56%)0.226.84   200.38(1.47%)195.47-200.61Uptrend 201.92(0.77%)198.56-203.3650
25Jun_24_2020-2.2%-34.4% 0%,0(0)0%,0(-0.1)0.3%,0.10.6-0.07%2%1.10.62(3.27%,1.86%)036.68   197.47(-2.17%)196.56-203.25Range Bound 196.17(-0.66%)194.57-197.4750
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVTVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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